Louisiana at UL Monroe
Thursday, November 12, 2026
9:00 PM ET, JPS Field at Malone Stadium (ESPN2)
Louisiana is a road favorite of 10.5 to 11.5 points depending on the shop, with the total at 49.5 at most books. My play is Under 49.5.
Michael Desormeaux was asked whether his quarterback could survive another bruising game five days after the last one. His answer: “We’ll find out.” That’s an honest coach, and it’s also the whole handicap. Louisiana is going to run the ball into a wall on Thursday night in Monroe, and it’s going to do it with fewer bodies than it had a week ago.
Start with the short week. The Cajuns beat South Alabama 28-26 on Saturday in a game Desormeaux called extra physical. Louisiana ran the ball on 44 of its 58 snaps, and Lunch Winfield carried it 19 times himself. Then Sunday became a Tuesday. “Tuesday is a Thursday practice, which is not a walk-through,” Desormeaux said. Running back Anthony Reagan is done for the season with a knee injury, which leaves JJ Garner, Steven Blanco, and true freshman Ke’Rynn Smith as the only healthy backs on the roster.
Garner was electric on Saturday with a career-high 136 yards on 10 carries. But this offense doesn’t win with home runs. Louisiana throws less than almost any team in the country, about 39% of its plays, and it wins by staying on schedule. Its 50.2% success rate ranks 27th nationally, meaning it keeps gaining the yards it needs down after down. That approach is great for moving the chains and terrible for Over bettors. It’s a big reason only three of Louisiana’s nine games have gone over, and none of its five home games have.
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Monroe isn’t the layup it was in September
Yes, UL Monroe is 2-7. It gave up 62 to Mississippi State and 52 to South Alabama, and it’s allowing 34.8 points per game on the season. That number is mostly September, though. The Warhawks have won at Troy and at Arkansas State in the last three weeks. Saturday’s 19-17 win in Jonesboro was no fluke: ULM outgained the Red Wolves 389-313, held them to 120 rushing yards, and kept the ball for more than 35 minutes. “They’re just playing a lot better is the long story short,” Desormeaux said.
On the other side of the ball, the ULM offense isn’t scaring anyone. The Warhawks score 20.1 points per game, and their explosive-play rate is second-to-last among the 138 teams Gridiron & Wine tracks. They don’t create chunk plays, so they have to drive the length of the field against a Louisiana defense that ranks 26th nationally in EPA allowed per play. That’s a lot of long drives that end in a field goal or a punt. Their last three games finished with 35, 56, and 36 total points.
The case for the Over, and why I’m not buying it
Louisiana’s own defense has been leaky away from home, giving up 49 at USC, 32 at Louisiana Tech, and 35 at Southern Miss. If ULM hits a couple of big plays or the Cajuns give it a short field after a turnover, this can turn into a 31-24 kind of night. And Garner breaking off one long run could do a lot of the work for the Over by himself.
Still, look at how these teams play: Louisiana leans hard on the run and is likely to be careful with its thin backfield, and ULM’s offense has to go 75 yards to score. That’s a clock-friendly game. Louisiana has won four of the last five in this rivalry, and I’d expect it to grind out another one here. I’d play this down to 47.
Projected score: Louisiana 26, UL Monroe 17
The Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
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