Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Scheumann Stadium
Buffalo is a 2.5-point road favorite with the total at 51.5 at most books. My play is Buffalo -2.5.
Pete Lembo coached Ball State for five seasons and took the Cardinals to bowl games in 2012 and 2013. Now he walks back into Scheumann Stadium for the first time as the visiting coach, leading a Buffalo team that has won four straight and sits 4-1 in the MAC. The Cardinals would love nothing more than to spoil the homecoming. I don’t think they have the defense to do it.
Buffalo can’t throw it, and it doesn’t need to
Let’s not pretend the Bulls are pretty. VSIN’s Adam Burke had them 133rd in the country in yards per play entering the week, and sophomore quarterback Jason Wright is completing under 50% of his passes. This offense gets by on grit and Messiah Burch, who has 901 rushing yards on 165 carries.
That’s the matchup that decides this one. Ball State ranks 115th in run defense, giving up nearly 180 rushing yards a game, and 132nd in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game. Burch should be able to lean on the Cardinals all night, which keeps Wright out of obvious passing downs where his accuracy becomes a problem. And when Buffalo does get close, Ball State has been a sieve. The Cardinals let opponents score on 90.9% of red zone trips, 118th in FBS.
The Bulls also look like a different team in league play. Burke’s numbers show Buffalo’s offense jumping from 4.19 yards per play out of conference to 5.08 against MAC teams, while the defense tightened from 6.36 allowed to 5.06. Ball State’s defense allows 5.79 yards per play overall, worse than its own offense produces.
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Lembo’s hidden yardage edge
Lembo has coordinated special teams in his career, and it shows. Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Buffalo’s special teams as the best in the MAC. Ball State just lost in overtime at UMass, 31-30, when Brody Boehm missed the extra point after Jalen Bonds scored first. In a game lined under a field goal, the kicking game is not a footnote.
Discipline matters here too. Ball State is giving away 73.3 penalty yards per game, 127th in FBS. Buffalo checks in at 48.3, 42nd. That’s roughly 25 free yards a night going Buffalo’s way before anybody breaks a tackle.
The case for the Cardinals
Ball State isn’t a pushover with the ball. Keldric Luster is completing 63% of his throws, Bonds ran for 132 yards last week, and the Cardinals have topped 350 total yards five weeks in a row. The history in Muncie also favors the home side, as Ball State has won five of six meetings there, and Buffalo’s only win in Muncie came in 2017. The Bulls are also minus-5 in turnover margin. If Wright gives away a couple of short fields, this flips fast. The last time these teams met, Buffalo won 51-48 in overtime, so a shootout isn’t off the table either.
Still, I trust the team that runs it, kicks it and doesn’t hurt itself with flags. Buffalo has found a formula in conference play, and Ball State’s defense is exactly the kind of unit it works against. Laying less than a field goal with the better team is a fair price.
Projected score: Buffalo 28, Ball State 23
The Pick: Buffalo -2.5 (-112)
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