Florida State at Pittsburgh
Friday, November 13, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium (ESPN)
Pitt is a 3.5-point home favorite over Florida State, with the total sitting at 53.5 to 54.5 at most books. My play is Pitt -3.5.
Here’s the number that matters: 11.0. That’s how many points per game Pitt has allowed at Acrisure Stadium this season. The Panthers have outscored home opponents 208-66 and haven’t let any team they beat there score more than 14. Florida State arrives on a one-game high under an interim coach, and it’s running straight into the toughest building it will see all year.
One win doesn’t fix a defense
Mike Norvell is gone, and Rick Stockstill, a Florida State graduate, got an immediate bump. The Seminoles won 31-24 at Boston College, snapping a three-game losing streak and earning their first road win in three seasons. Credit to them. The feel-good story still has to deal with the actual roster.
The FSU defense ranks 115th nationally in EPA allowed per play, meaning opponents gain chunks of expected points on almost every snap, and it’s allowing 31.0 points a game. Interim coordinator Ernie Sims admitted he’s had to “spoon-feed” the defense because of injuries, and Stockstill had no timetable for defensive linemen Kevin Wynn or Deante McCray. The staff brought in Paul Pasqualoni on Sunday to help. A team that’s calling in reinforcements in November isn’t fixed.
Pitt’s run defense is a brick wall
Florida State wants to win this game on the ground. Pat Narduzzi called Ashton Daniels “a linebacker playing quarterback,” and the Seminoles will run him on designed plays along with leading back Ousmane Kromah. That’s a bad plan in Pittsburgh. The Panthers allow 68.3 rushing yards per game and 2.24 yards per carry, the best mark in the ACC. At home, opponents are averaging 55.8 rushing yards. Pitt also ranks third in the country in defensive success rate, so offenses rarely stay on schedule against them.
Take away the run and Daniels has to win from the pocket. That cuts both ways. He averages 8.9 yards per attempt, but he’s also thrown 12 interceptions against 14 touchdowns. FSU will be without receiver Duce Robinson, whom Narduzzi believes tore his ACL, and has a new starting center in Chavez Thompson after Bradyn Welch-Joiner went down. Stockstill already knows where the trouble is: “We have to do a great job communicating up front.”
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Rested, at home, and playing for the seniors
Pitt is coming off a bye after beating Georgia Tech 34-11, so the Panthers get 13 days of rest while Florida State gets six and a trip of roughly 730 miles. It’s also Senior Night for 19 Panthers, and Narduzzi spent part of his press conference asking the crowd to show up loud for them.
The Pitt offense isn’t pretty, but it has the right tools for this matchup. Freshman Damon Ferguson Jr. ran for 185 yards against Georgia Tech, and he gets to face a defense that’s short on healthy linemen. Cataurus Hicks averages 20.5 yards per catch, the best mark among qualifying ACC receivers, and he’s caught a touchdown in three straight games. Quarterback Holden Geriner only has to be steady. He threw for 180 yards with no picks in his first win as a starter.
Where the interim magic could bite me
Florida State’s offense creates explosive plays at the eighth-highest rate in the country, and Micahi Danzy caught seven balls for 133 yards against Pitt last year. One or two blown coverages could swing a three-point game. The Seminoles also have history on their side in this building: Pitt hasn’t beaten Florida State at home since 1983. And Pitt turned it over three times against Georgia Tech. If Geriner gives FSU short fields, the hook on 3.5 could hurt. I’d still play Pitt up to -4. At -4.5 or higher, I’d stay away.
Projected score: Pittsburgh 27, Florida State 20
The Pick: Pitt -3.5 (-110)
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