Houston Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes
Friday, November 13, 2026
10:15 PM ET, Folsom Field
Houston is a 10.5-point road favorite over Colorado with a total of 50.5, and my play is Houston -10.5.
“This is not how it’s supposed to be,” Deion Sanders said after Saturday’s 20-10 loss at Arizona State. He’s right, and nothing about this week’s matchup suggests it gets better on Friday night.
Colorado didn’t pick up a first down in Tempe until midway through the second quarter. It trailed 17-0 at halftime. That’s six losses in seven games, and now the Buffaloes need to win out against Houston, Cincinnati and UCF just to reach a bowl. Sanders himself said, “The season doesn’t look good.” When a coach sounds like that on Saturday, I’m not rushing to bet his team on Friday.
Houston moves the chains like it’s paid by the first down
Houston’s offense isn’t flashy. It’s relentless. The Cougars lead the country in third-down conversions at 59.3%, and they hold the ball over 32 minutes a game. Conner Weigman has 22 touchdown passes against just two interceptions, and he’s run for seven more scores. Think about what that means for Colorado: long, grinding drives, a tired defense, and an offense that’s standing on the sideline in a game it can’t afford to play from behind.
And Colorado can’t play from behind. The Buffs score 19.8 points a game, 123rd in the country. Their turnover margin is -11, which ranks 137th. They commit over 75 penalty yards a game, 129th. That’s a team that hands you extra possessions and extra yards and then can’t punch back. Houston, by contrast, is +7 in turnovers. One team plays clean, the other plays sloppy, and the clean team has the better quarterback.
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Colorado’s offense is built to run first, and that runs straight into a Houston front that gives up just 107 rushing yards a game. When the Buffs can’t run, the whole thing stalls, and Arizona State just showed everyone how that looks. Isaac Wilson can hit Joseph Williams, who has 853 receiving yards, but asking a passer with eight interceptions to win a shootout from behind is how a 10-point game becomes a 17-point game.
These two met last September in Houston, and the Cougars won 36-20. Weigman ran for two touchdowns that night. Colorado has since handed play-calling to Brennan Marion and his Go-Go scheme, and the offense still hasn’t found a rhythm.
Where this goes sideways
Houston is just 3-6 against the spread, and that’s not nothing. Its two losses, 28-26 at Texas Tech and 21-13 at Utah, both came on the road, and its 31-24 win over Cincinnati last week was tight. The run defense numbers also get a boost from a 77-6 win over Southern, and Utah and Cincinnati both ran for 160-plus on the Cougars. If Colorado finds its ground game, this is a game. Houston’s pass defense gives up nearly 253 yards a game, so Williams can make some noise. And a 10:15 PM ET kickoff at altitude with a team playing for its season is a classic backdoor setup. The models land right around this number too, so this is a conviction play more than a math play. I’d still take it up to -11.5.
Projected score: Houston 34, Colorado 17
The Pick: Houston -10.5 (-108)
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