Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions
Thursday, Nov. 12 – Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026
Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa, Austin, Texas
Rookie Jackson Koivun is the favorite at 15/1 (+1500) for the first-ever Austin Championship. My pick to win is Ben Kohles at 45/1 (+4500), the best iron player on Tour.
Nobody gets to tell you who “loves this place” this week. There’s no defending champion and no Tour data from Fazio Canyons, so we handicap the scorecard. It’s shouting one thing.
Fazio left a long-iron exam in the Hill Country
Canyons plays 7,451 yards at par 72, and the back nine eats up 3,808 of them. Five par 4s stretch from 448 to 492 yards (Nos. 6, 9, 10, 15 and 16), and three of the four par 3s measure 215 to 230. That’s long irons into elevated greens, with a creek and limestone waiting. The 2022 renovation widened the corridors, so the driver isn’t the scary club. The approach is.
Four par 5s feed the scoring, and the MiniVerde Bermuda greens get tiered and sloped on the back nine, so lag putting matters.
Two sunny days, then a weekend question mark. Thursday and Friday look sunny, dry and mild, with highs in the mid-70s and only light breezes. Saturday starts mostly sunny with a high near 72, but showers become possible after noon, and gusts can reach 25 mph. Sunday is still only a forecast, but it calls for a mostly cloudy day with a high near 71, east-southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph and a 50% chance of showers. A wet finish rewards whoever keeps finding greens.
Why Kohles fits Canyons like a glove
Kohles is fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, the stat that measures how many shots a player beats the field by each round. He’s first in approach play, first in greens in regulation (74.76%) and first in driving accuracy (80.39%). On a course full of long par 4s, long par 3s and hazards, that’s the guy you want.
He’s 59th in putting, so he needs a normal week on the greens, not a miracle. His floor this fall has been concrete: T15, T13, T17, T17 and T25 in five Fall starts, part of a run of eight straight made cuts. The Dallas native is still chasing his first Tour win. If Sunday’s wind shows up, he’ll give back the fewest shots.
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Paying chalk prices for a profile you can’t see
Koivun can play. He won the 3M Open at -25 in July, and the DataGolf model rates him the second-best player in this field. But since that win, his only real Sunday sweat was a T5 at the Biltmore. Utah was T65, Los Cabos T21. He has no Texas starts this year and too few rounds to appear in the Tour’s strokes-gained tables, so nobody can confirm he has the long irons and Bermuda putting this course demands. At a favorite’s price, somebody else can pay for that faith.
I’m also steering around Austin Smotherman, the hottest player of the autumn. He won in Utah and Bermuda, and his irons are elite (fifth in approach). But he ranks 163rd around the greens and 155th in putting, an ugly combination on tiered Bermuda greens. And he hasn’t played since that Bermuda playoff win in late October.
Storylines in the Texas capital
Blades Brown, 19, arrives as the Tour’s newest winner after beating Ben James in a playoff in Los Cabos, the first teenager to win since Jordan Spieth in 2013. James, who missed from 43 inches in that playoff, has two runner-ups this fall. Five former Texas Longhorns are a short drive from campus, and with only Austin and the RSM left, the top-100 card line is in full panic mode.
Down the board, where the irons still do the talking
Chris Kirk (+3000) is eighth on Tour in approach and 19th in GIR, and he’s rolling: T10 at the Biltmore, T21 in Utah, T6 in Bermuda and T12 last week. He’s also sitting just outside the top-100 card line with two events left, so there’s no coasting. The putter (146th) keeps him out of the top spot.
Jordan Smith (+2800) pounds it 312.7 yards and keeps it in play (20th in accuracy), and he’s ninth in GIR. He was T4 at Baycurrent and T8 last week.
Johnny Keefer (longshot, +3500) owns the best Texas résumé in this tier this year: T3 in Houston and T9 at the Byron Nelson. The Baylor product hits it 320 yards and is 10th in GIR. Two straight missed cuts make this strictly a price play.
Doug Ghim top-20 (-130) is the steadiest ticket on the card. He’s fifth in SG: Total and fourth in GIR, he’s gone top-20 in four straight starts, and as a former Longhorn he should have some feel for the place, since the Texas team often holds qualifiers on Canyons. He’s still winless, so I’d rather cash the finish than sweat the trophy.
Where this goes sideways
Kohles hasn’t finished top-five lately, and he hasn’t been in the mix on a Sunday in a while. He missed the cut at both the Byron Nelson and the Schwab this year, so Texas hasn’t been kind. He’s 155th in driving distance, so the bombers get easier par-5 looks if this becomes a calm birdie fest. And Sunday’s forecast can still change. I’d want 20/1 or longer on Kohles, and 45/1 clears that number.
Projected winning score: -19 (269), assuming the calm holds through Saturday. If Sunday’s wind and rain arrive, pull that back to -15 or -16.
The Pick: Ben Kohles to win (+4500)
Value plays: Chris Kirk to win (+3000), Jordan Smith to win (+2800) and Johnny Keefer to win (longshot, +3500).
Top-20: Doug Ghim top-20 finish (-130).
Fade: Jackson Koivun, the favorite at +1500. Austin Smotherman is a secondary fade.
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