Colgate Raiders at No. 13 St. John’s Red Storm
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Carnesecca Arena
No. 13 St. John’s is a 28.5-point favorite over Colgate with a total of 156.5 at most books, and my play is Colgate +28.5. Fair warning up front: this is a lean, not a hammer.
Nobody needs convincing that St. John’s wins this game. Rick Pitino is 20-0 at Carnesecca Arena since he took the job, winning those games by an average of 24.1 points, according to the school. The question is whether the Johnnies feel like working for a 30-point margin on a Wednesday night in a cozy gym, three days before Syracuse comes to town.
The press is real, and Colgate knows it
St. John’s has looked like a team that skipped the awkward early-season phase. Through two wins over Monmouth and Iona, the Red Storm have 23 steals, forced 37 turnovers and turned those into 47 points. Quinn Ellis is running the show like a guy who has seen every trap there is, with 18 assists and two turnovers so far. Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou dropped 23 on Iona, Keyshawn Hall leads the team at 19.5 points a game, and Ian Jackson is 6-of-13 from deep.
The 104-65 beatdown of Iona got all the headlines. Here’s the less-loud part: Monmouth only lost by 15, and Pitino called most of that night “mediocre” after a great first 10 minutes.
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Why the Raiders can hang around the number
Colgate is 0-2, but it hasn’t been a punching bag. The Raiders led Washington for a chunk of the first half before losing by 14, then blew an 11-point second-half lead in a 77-74 loss at Drexel. They’ve been careful with the ball, at 9.5 turnovers a game, which is exactly the trait that keeps a press from snowballing.
The engine is sophomore Andrew Alekseyenko, last year’s Patriot League Rookie of the Year. He’s putting up 22.5 points and 12.5 boards and has hit 7 of 11 threes. Sam Wright dropped 21 at Drexel. And this is a team that will let it fly. Even Pitino said so: “Colgate is a team that will take 40 3s if they have to and we got to be ready for defending that.” A team taking 30-plus threes is a team that can steal a backdoor cover once the Johnnies’ bench takes over.
The projections agree, roughly. The Breakdown’s model has St. John’s by about 23 points with a total near 154, and it notes that early-season numbers still lean on the preseason. Five points of daylight against a 28.5 spread isn’t a slam dunk, but it points the same way.
The case against me
Big spreads can turn ugly fast. If the St. John’s press flips five straight possessions into layups, this is over by the under-12 timeout, and 30 is easy. Colgate is also shooting just 45.3% inside the arc, so when the threes stop falling, the offense goes cold. The Raiders lost their top scorer and assist man, Jalen Cox, to USC. And Pitino’s home margin sits right around this number already. That’s why this is a lean and not a strong play.
Projected score: St. John’s 86, Colgate 61
The Pick: Colgate +28.5 (-110)
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