Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
8:00 PM ET, FedExForum
The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites with a total of 228.5 at most books, and my play is the Grizzlies +3.5.
Here’s a question nobody seems to be asking: why is the better team getting points at home? Memphis is 7-3. Denver is 5-4. The Grizzlies carry a +7.0 net rating, ninth in the league, while the Nuggets sit at +0.8, which is 17th and smack in the middle of the pack. The price says Denver is the superior club by a full possession plus, on the road. The numbers say the market is still betting on a name.
Memphis isn’t last year’s punchline
The Grizzlies went 25-57 last season, and that memory is doing a lot of work in this line. This version is different. Ty Jerome is scoring 26.7 points a night, sixth in the NBA, and rookie Cameron Boozer is putting up 16.2 points, 9.7 boards and 5.5 assists like he’s been doing it for years. On Monday they went into Toronto and won 118-102, with Jerome dropping 27 and Boozer adding 22 with eight assists.
They also do the dirty work. Memphis grabs 48.3 rebounds a game, fourth in the league, and owns a +6.4 edge on the glass every night. Denver is on the other side of that ledger: 21st in rebounding and outboarded by 2.3 a game. When the Nuggets miss, Memphis tends to end the possession. When Memphis misses, it gets a second crack nearly 30% of the time.
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Denver’s defense is the leak in the boat
Nobody needs a scouting report on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Murray is averaging 25.8 points and just poured in 38 at Houston. Jokic posted 25, 16 and 8 in that same game. Denver still lost by 10. That’s the pattern: the Nuggets can score with anyone, but they rank 20th in defensive efficiency, letting opponents score 115.5 points per 100 possessions. Memphis hits 15.2 threes a game, fifth-most in the league, and Denver allows opponents to hit 2.7 more threes per game than it makes.
The market has noticed, too. Denver opened -4.5 and has already been bet down to -3.5. I’d grab the hook while it’s here.
The case against me
Memphis has been strangely bad at FedExForum. The Grizzlies are 5-0 on the road and 2-3 at home, riding a three-game home skid that includes a 31-point beatdown by Oklahoma City. Their schedule has been soft, too, with road wins over Sacramento, Utah, Portland and a Toronto team missing three starters. The frontcourt is thin: Quinten Post is out after taking an elbow to the face in Toronto, and Isaiah Stewart is day-to-day with a knee issue after missing the last two games. Zach Edey and Boozer have to hold up against the best big man on the planet. And if Murray gets cooking again, 3.5 points disappears fast.
Still, I’ll take a better net rating, a big rebounding edge and a line that’s already moving my way. Both teams played Monday, so neither side has a rest edge.
Projected score: Grizzlies 116, Nuggets 113
The Pick: Grizzlies +3.5 (-106)
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