Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Toyota Center
The Rockets are 6.5-point favorites with a total of 222.5 at most books, and my play is the Warriors +6.5.
Stephen Curry is 38 years old and playing like he found a cheat code. He’s averaging 30.6 points, he dropped 41 on Orlando on Saturday, and on Monday he needed barely 21 minutes to score 25 in a 51-point demolition of New Orleans. Golden State started 0-3. It hasn’t lost since.
Two teams, one tier. Strip away the logos and these clubs are twins. Houston’s net rating is +9.4, fourth in the league. Golden State’s is +9.2, fifth. The Warriors have the second-best offense in basketball, scoring 120.9 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets counter with the eighth-best defense. When two teams are this close, a 6.5-point spread is asking home court to do an awful lot of lifting. A normal home edge gets you about half of that number.
The ball keeps moving. Golden State has 30-plus assists in three straight games and five of its last six, and it’s 6-0 when it hits that mark. Nearly half of its shots come from deep. Even without Jimmy Butler, who’s been reduced to holding a clipboard on the bench, the Warriors have found a rhythm with Brandin Podziemski and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, who has scored 23 in each of the last two games.
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Houston’s big-man problem. The Rockets are 5-1 at Toyota Center and just handled Denver 110-100 behind Kevin Durant’s 23 and Alperen Sengun’s 20. But both backup centers, Clint Capela (ankle) and Steven Adams (calf), are out. That leaves Sengun to carry the middle for heavy minutes, and Houston has already shown some wobble, dropping two straight to Minnesota and Phoenix before Monday’s win.
Why I could be wrong. This is Golden State’s first road game in almost two weeks after six straight at home, and the Warriors are just 2-2 away from Chase Center. The injury list is long: Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Will Richard and Brandon Williams are all out, and Gary Payton II is nursing a knee issue. The scariest matchup is on the glass. Houston rebounds nearly a third of its own misses, and Golden State is only middling at closing out possessions. If the Rockets win the offensive boards by double digits, this gets away from me. The market has also nudged Houston from -5.5 to -6.5, so not everyone agrees.
Both teams play at a crawl, ranking in the bottom seven in pace, and possessions will be precious. In a slow game, 6.5 points is a big cushion, and I’ll take it with the hottest team in the West.
Projected score: Rockets 112, Warriors 109
The Pick: Warriors +6.5 (-113)
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