Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center
The New Orleans Pelicans are 4.5-point favorites over the Brooklyn Nets, with the total sitting at 229.5 across most books. My play is the Pelicans -4.5.
“We got our a– kicked.” That was Jamahl Mosley on Monday night, after Golden State hung a 138-87 loss on New Orleans, the worst regular-season defeat in franchise history. The market saw that score and kept this number short. I think that’s a mistake, because the team that got embarrassed at Chase Center isn’t the team taking the floor Wednesday.
Monday was a skeleton crew. The Pelicans played at the Clippers on Sunday, then flew up to San Francisco without Zion Williamson (rested on the second night of the back-to-back) or Trey Murphy III (knee). Trendon Watford sat too. A shorthanded team on no rest ran into a Warriors club riding an eight-game win streak, shot 8-for-28 from three and got buried. Ugly? Absolutely. Predictive? Not much.
Now Williamson is off the injury report, Murphy is listed as probable, and New Orleans opens a five-game homestand at the Smoothie King Center, where it has won three of its last four. Zion is leading the team at 21 points a night, and his return changes what this offense looks like in a hurry.
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Brooklyn gives the ball away, and New Orleans takes it. This is the matchup I care about most. The Nets cough it up on 15.9% of their possessions, one of the worst rates in the league, at more than 18 turnovers a game. The Pelicans are swiping 10.4 steals per night. Live-ball turnovers turn into layups, and layups are how a decent offense blows open a game against a bad one.
The ratings gap is bigger than 4.5. Once Basketball Reference adjusts for opponents, Brooklyn has been nearly 13 points per 100 possessions worse than average, with an offense scoring just 106.4 points per 100 trips. New Orleans sits around 3.6 worse than average, and that includes all the nights its best forwards weren’t available. Add home court and the fair line lands closer to a touchdown than a field goal. Michael Porter Jr. (21.5 points) and Julius Randle can get hot, but the Nets are 1-5 on the road and coming off a 130-93 loss in Dallas to finish a three-game road skid.
The case against me. New Orleans can’t defend right now. Allowing 139 and 138 on back-to-back nights isn’t only about who was missing, and Mosley said as much. Murphy is managing a tendon issue in both knees, so his minutes could be limited or he could be a late scratch. Brooklyn has also had two full days off, while the Pelicans are coming home from a road trip. If Porter gets loose from three and the Nets keep it clean, this stays inside the number.
I’ll still take the healthier, better team coming off a game it’s sick of hearing about.
Projected score: Pelicans 118, Nets 108
The Pick: Pelicans -4.5 (-110)
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