Northwestern Wildcats at No. 20 Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, November 14, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Ohio Stadium
Ohio State is a 12.5-point favorite over Northwestern with a total of 45.5 at most books, and my play is Under 45.5.
Ohio State started this season ranked No. 1 in the country. Now the Buckeyes are 6-3, have lost two straight, and their own beat writers say the Oregon loss ended their postseason hopes. Ryan Day just fired his special teams coordinator. Into that mood walks a Northwestern team that also lost its last two, and both of these offenses are being run by quarterbacks who weren’t supposed to be starting in November.
That’s the whole game. Bet on the quarterbacks, not the logos.
Ohio State’s freshman is still learning on the job
With Julian Sayin out indefinitely, Day is sticking with freshman Luke Fahey. The box score from the 41-28 loss to Oregon looks fine: 36-of-50 for 360 yards and two touchdowns. The film, as Eleven Warriors charted it, tells a different story. Eighty-five of those yards and both scores came on his final three throws, with Oregon up big and playing soft coverage. Before that, it was a steady diet of check-downs. As a starter, Fahey has completed just 11 of 25 passes under pressure.
The run game isn’t bailing him out, either. Ohio State ran 21 times for 53 yards against Oregon. A week earlier, the Buckeyes managed 18 points at USC. Jeremiah Smith is on the field, so the explosive play is always possible. But this offense has stalled out for long stretches two weeks running, and Northwestern’s linebackers are the strength of its defense. Braydon Brus has 75 tackles and four sacks, and Kobie McKinzie isn’t far behind. The Wildcats allow 19.3 points a game, 28th in FBS.
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Chip Kelly’s homecoming may come without his quarterback
The storyline everyone will talk about is Chip Kelly coming back to Columbus. He called plays for Ohio State’s 2024 title team, and his Northwestern offense averaged 33.6 points a game with Aidan Chiles healthy. Chiles has been terrific: 13 touchdown passes, one interception, and 10 more scores on the ground.
But Chiles missed the Iowa game with an upper-body injury, and the drop-off was brutal. Nicco Marchiol was tidy, going 24-of-32 with no turnovers, but the Wildcats went 1-for-11 on third down, got sacked six times and averaged 2.8 yards a carry. Their only touchdown came with the game decided. David Braun called Chiles “truly a day-to-day deal,” and the school’s first availability report doesn’t come out until Wednesday night.
Even with Chiles, this is a tough spot. Ohio State’s defense allows 18.3 points and 287 yards a game on the season. It has given up only 97 rushing yards a game, and Northwestern’s offense needs Caleb Komolafe to move the chains.
Why I could be wrong
The Buckeyes just gave up 30 to USC and 41 to Oregon, so their defense isn’t the wall it was in September. If Chiles plays and looks like himself, Kelly will find answers, and a couple of Northwestern kick-coverage mistakes (Iowa returned one 96 yards for a score) could add cheap points. A defensive or special teams touchdown kills most unders. The line has also moved from 10.5 early in the week to 12.5, so the market expects Ohio State to put up points.
I’ll still take a noon November kickoff with a freshman who checks it down under pressure and a Northwestern offense that might be on its backup again. This looks like a 20-something-to-teens game, not a shootout.
Projected score: Ohio State 27, Northwestern 13
The Pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
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