Purdue Boilermakers at Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, November 14, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Kinnick Stadium
No. 15 Iowa is a 16.5-point favorite over Purdue, with the total at 47.5 at most books. My play is Iowa -16.5.
Barry Odom fired his defensive coordinator on Sunday. His reward is a Saturday night trip to Kinnick Stadium, where Iowa has won eight straight night games dating back to 2022. Welcome to the new job, whoever ends up calling the defense.
Kevin Kane was let go after a 34-29 loss to Maryland, Purdue’s third straight defeat, and Odom took the blame himself, saying, “I feel responsible, because I didn’t help him enough.” You can respect the honesty and still want no part of this defense. Purdue is giving up 32.3 points per game (124th in FBS) and 6.7 yards per play, 131st in the country per TeamRankings. Over the last three games, opponents are averaging 10.6 yards per pass attempt. That’s not a leaky defense. That’s a screen door.
Iowa doesn’t need to be fancy, and it won’t be
The Hawkeyes are still going to run it. They average 173.8 rushing yards a game, five different backs have gone over 100 yards in a game this season, and L.J. Phillips Jr. ran for 128 in his first start last week at Northwestern. Now they get a Purdue run defense that’s allowing 5.4 yards per carry. Iowa is 15-1 under coordinator Tim Lester when it rushes for 200 yards.
And when Iowa does throw, Hank Brown is in a groove: 36-of-45 for 348 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games, including a Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week turn against Wisconsin. Against a pass defense that has been torched for weeks, play-action shots should be wide open.
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Purdue’s offense is running into a wall
Ryan Browne can throw it. He has 2,260 passing yards, and Purdue ranks 26th nationally through the air. But the Boilermakers can’t run (117th in rushing), and Iowa’s defense makes one-dimensional teams miserable. The Hawkeyes rank third nationally in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, fifth against the run, and they’re averaging 3.33 sacks a game. They’ve allowed one touchdown in their last nine quarters, shut out Wisconsin 30-0 two weeks ago, and have three shutouts this season. Third downs are a problem for opponents too: Iowa allows conversions just 29.1% of the time.
Then there’s the hidden yardage. Iowa’s kickoff return unit leads the nation at 47 yards per return, and Braeden Jackson has taken two back for scores. Against a defense that already can’t get off the field, a short field is a free touchdown.
The case against laying 16.5
Iowa rarely runs up the score. A methodical, run-first offense can take the air out of the ball with a big second-half lead, and backdoor touchdowns are how big favorites lose bets. Browne threw for 296 yards against Maryland, so Purdue can move the ball in garbage time. A new defensive play-caller could also give the Boilermakers a one-week jolt, and Iowa has a road trip to Illinois next week. Purdue did beat Minnesota 41-13 a month ago, so this team isn’t dead.
I’m laying it anyway. Iowa is 6-3 ATS, has won 24 of its last 29 November games, and the matchup is ugly: the Hawkeyes’ strengths line up perfectly with Purdue’s biggest weaknesses.
Projected score: Iowa 34, Purdue 13
The Pick: Iowa -16.5 (-115)
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