No. 13 Wake Forest at SMU
Saturday, November 14, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Gerald J. Ford Stadium
SMU is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 60.5 at most books, and my play is Wake Forest on the moneyline at -110.
This line opened with Wake Forest favored by 2.5, according to the ESPN/AP preview. It has since swung four points the other way. Nothing on the field has changed. The 8-1 Deacons are still the second-best team in the ACC standings, they’ve covered seven of nine, and their quarterback is coming back. I’ll gladly take the team the market just got nervous about.
The Gio Lopez scare is overblown
Lopez left the Halloween win over Virginia with a leg injury and sat out the 77-0 rout of Merrimack. That’s the whole reason this number moved. But Jake Dickert didn’t sound like a coach hedging on Monday. “He’ll be ready to go Saturday,” Dickert said, per Deacons Illustrated. “You can see he’s that competitive, he’s that tough, he’s that driven.”
When Lopez plays, this offense hums. He has thrown for 2,176 yards with 18 touchdowns and one interception, and Carlos Hernandez has turned 61 catches into 945 yards. Wake scores 43.3 points per game, fourth in FBS. Dickert also expects linebacker Aiden Hall, who he called “one of the heart and soul of the defensive guys,” to push through the week, and tight end Will Loerzel “for sure” will play.
SMU’s red zone is an open door
Here’s the matchup that decides it. SMU’s defense lets opponents score on 91.3% of red zone trips, which ranks 120th in FBS. Wake Forest’s offense cashes in on 93.5% of its trips, 13th in the country. When the Deacons get inside the 20, the Mustangs basically can’t stop them.
Wake also wins the turnover battle on a regular basis. It’s +4 in turnover margin (28th), while SMU is -4 (105th). In a game priced like a coin flip, the team that protects the ball and finishes drives should be the one you want.
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The Deacons can make SMU one-dimensional
Wake allows just 85 rushing yards a game, eighth in the nation, and 15.9 points per game. That matters because SMU’s offense is at its best when Kendrick Raphael (755 yards, 10 touchdowns) keeps the chains moving and Kevin Jennings can pick his spots. Jennings has been very good, with 25 touchdowns against six picks, and SMU throws for 323.8 yards a game. Take the run away and the Mustangs have to win through the air every snap, which is doable but risky against a defense that has given up 7 points or fewer in four of its last five games.
SMU has also been shaky away from home in the bigger spots, losing 41-31 at Louisville and 30-27 at Syracuse. At home, though, the Mustangs are unbeaten, and they just hung 51 on Virginia Tech.
Why I could be wrong
Start with the schedule. Wake’s recent run of blowouts came against Stanford, NC State, Cal, Virginia and Merrimack. The biggest test, a home game against Miami, ended in a 33-20 loss. SMU is the best team Wake has faced since then.
Then there’s the passing defense. Wake ranks 86th against the pass at 225 yards per game, and SMU’s air attack is sixth in FBS. If Jennings gets time, he can hit chunk plays all afternoon. Wake is also the most penalized team in FBS at 83.2 penalty yards per game, and a few drive-killing flags on the road can flip a close game. Add the revenge factor, since Wake beat SMU last season, and a Lopez who may not be 100%, and there are real reasons this is a short price.
I still think the move went too far. Wake is the better, cleaner team, and the market priced in a quarterback absence that doesn’t look like it’s coming.
Projected score: Wake Forest 31, SMU 27
The Pick: Wake Forest ML (-110)
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