Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, November 14, 2026
6:15 PM ET, Kroger Field
Kentucky is a 3.5-point favorite at most books, and the total is 52.5. My play is Kentucky -3.5.
Who’s starting at quarterback for Florida on Saturday? Jon Sumrall doesn’t know yet, or at least he isn’t saying. “There’ll be one guy that starts and one guy that doesn’t,” he said Monday. That’s not what you want to hear from a road team in November.
Florida’s quarterback carousel. Aaron Philo won the job in camp and was steady early, then hurt his shoulder late in the blowout loss to South Carolina. Tramell Jones Jr. stepped in and won at Texas, the best moment of Sumrall’s first season. Florida went back to Philo for Georgia, benched him after a couple of interceptions, and went back to Jones. Jones then went 10-of-22 for 133 yards with two picks in a 23-7 loss to Oklahoma. “Didn’t think we played well enough at quarterback on Saturday,” Sumrall said.
The Gators scored 8 against Georgia and 7 against Oklahoma. The 32.4 points per game they’re averaging for the season is mostly a September number.
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Kentucky wins the hidden battles. The Wildcats aren’t a pretty team, but they don’t beat themselves. Kentucky is plus-10 in turnover margin, seventh in the country, and averages only 42.8 penalty yards a game, 18th-fewest in the country. Florida is minus-3 in turnovers and gives away 71.1 penalty yards a game, which ranks 121st. Put a shaky quarterback behind a team that keeps committing penalties, and the drives are going to keep stalling.
Kenny Minchey has been a big reason Kentucky doesn’t turn it over. He has 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions, and he’s completing almost 70% of his passes. Florida’s pass defense ranks 99th in yards allowed, and it lets opponents convert 41.6% of their third downs, 124th in the nation. Kentucky’s offense isn’t great on third downs, so that’s a matchup it needs. The Wildcats are 7-2 against the spread, and the market noticed. This line opened at -1.5.
The case against me. Kentucky just got beaten 34-6 at Tennessee, and its 7-2 record has some luck in it: two overtime wins by a single point, over South Carolina and LSU. The defense has its own holes, too. Opponents score on 90.9% of their red zone trips against the Wildcats, 118th in the country. Jadan Baugh has 14 rushing touchdowns, and if Florida can just run it in once it gets close, this stays tight. If Jones plays like he did in Austin, Florida can win this game outright.
I’m betting on the team that protects the ball over the team that can’t settle on a quarterback. I’d play Kentucky up to -4, but not at -4.5.
Projected score: Kentucky 27, Florida 20
The Pick: Kentucky -3.5
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