Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, November 14, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Casino Del Sol Stadium
Utah is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 54.5 at most books, and my play is Utah -2.5.
Two weeks ago, Texas Tech went into a big Big 12 game against Arizona and simply ran the ball down its throat: 328 rushing yards at seven yards a carry. Arizona’s own ground game managed 12 yards that day. Now the Wildcats get No. 2 Utah, an unbeaten team that runs for 215.4 yards a game. I’ve seen this movie.
Arizona earned the ranking, but has a soft spot. Brent Brennan has turned No. 23 Arizona into a real Big 12 contender. The Wildcats are 7-2, they’ve won seven straight at home for the first time since 1993-94, and Noah Fifita has 21 touchdown passes for an offense that throws for 322.9 yards a game. Isaiah Mizell has become a legit deep threat, with 182 yards and a 94-yard score in Lubbock. But Arizona gives up 125.2 rushing yards a game, and Texas Tech showed everyone where the soft spot is. Last week it needed a recovered onside pooch kick and a field goal with 39 seconds left to get past a 4-5 TCU team, 29-28.
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Utah doesn’t do pretty. It does wins. The Utes are 9-0 and have pulled out more than their share of grinders: 27-24 at Colorado, 21-13 over Houston and last week’s 28-20 Holy War win over BYU. That BYU game was Utah in a nutshell. Down six at halftime, the defense took over, picking off Bear Bachmeier four times and shutting out the Cougars in the second half. Devon Dampier accounted for four touchdowns, and Morgan Scalley summed it up: “He’s a competitor. He’s a warrior. He wins us football games.”
The matchup that decides it is Utah’s ground game, led by Wayshawn Parker’s 762 yards and nine touchdowns, plus Dampier’s legs, against an Arizona front that just got bullied. Utah’s defense also holds teams to 16.3 points a game and 103.3 on the ground, so Arizona will have to throw to keep up. That plays into a secondary that just took the ball away four times.
The case against me. Utah’s offense has been sluggish lately. It averaged 3.5 yards a carry against BYU and 3.4 at Colorado, and it managed just 330 total yards against the Cougars. Dampier has thrown seven interceptions, and one bad decision in a hostile stadium can flip a field-goal game. Fifita can get hot, too; he threw for 417 yards at Texas Tech. The market has moved toward Utah, from -1.5 to -2.5, so you’re paying a little more for the Utes. I’d still play it up to -3. Expect a mild, dry-ish night in Tucson with temperatures in the upper 60s, so the conditions won’t get in the way of either offense.
Projected score: Utah 30, Arizona 24
The Pick: Utah -2.5 (-118)
Trust the unbeaten Utes to lean on the run and win in the desert, and bring some extra bankroll into Saturday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Utah -2.5 and the rest of your Week 11 college football picks.
