Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars
Saturday, November 14, 2026
3:30 PM ET, LaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU is a 7.5-point favorite over Baylor with a total of 49.5 at most books, and my play is Baylor +7.5.
Baylor fired Dave Aranda after a loss at Kansas on Oct. 24. Since then the Bears have beaten UCF 41-9 and Iowa State 42-31, and the team that looked finished is tied with BYU at 4-2 in the Big 12, with its title fate largely in its own hands. Interim coach Joe Klanderman was already running one of the best defenses in the country. Now he’s running the whole show, and his players are playing like it.
The pass rush is the whole story. Baylor ranks second in the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, with 37 sacks through nine games. That’s nine shy of the school record with three games left. The Bears sacked Iowa State three times and piled up nine tackles behind the line last week. Point that at Bear Bachmeier, who is coming off a four-interception afternoon in a 28-20 loss at Utah and has eight picks on the year, and you have a quarterback who could spend Saturday seeing ghosts.
To be fair to Bachmeier, he’s BYU’s leading rusher too, with 395 yards and seven scores, and he can punish a defense that gets too greedy. But a quarterback who has to carry both the run game and the passing game is one bad read from a short field for the other side.
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These teams are closer than 7.5. Baylor allows 17 points per game, 18th in the country, while BYU gives up 19.8. The offenses are nearly twins: Baylor scores 31.9 a game, BYU 31.0. DJ Lagway brings a new wrinkle, too. He set career highs with 119 rushing yards on 13 carries against Iowa State, and Baylor ran for 194 as a team. Baylor is also 7-2 against the spread this year, the kind of team the market keeps underrating.
So what are you paying for with BYU? Home field in Provo, which is real, and not much else. Take away a hook-plus and this is a field goal game.
What could go wrong. BYU converts 50.9% of its third downs, 11th in the country, and Baylor is 117th in penalty yards at 68.6 a game. Hand a good third-down team free first downs on the road and the upset math falls apart. Baylor has also used five different offensive line combinations this season, and the early forecast in Provo calls for the mid-40s with a good chance of rain, which favors whichever line wins up front. If BYU’s defense, which made 11 tackles for loss against Utah, lives in Lagway’s lap, this cover gets tough.
But I’ll take the team with the better defense, the hotter quarterback and the pass rush that can flip the turnover battle, getting more than a touchdown.
Projected score: BYU 24, Baylor 21
The Pick: Baylor +7.5 (-118)
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