Texas at LSU
Saturday, November 14, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Tiger Stadium
LSU is a 4-point favorite at most books with a total of 46.5, and my play is LSU -4.
Here’s a fun one. No. 6 Texas has won three straight, Arch Manning just threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns at Missouri, and LSU is coming off a 31-13 home beating from Alabama. Roughly 86% of spread tickets are on the Longhorns. And the line? It was LSU -3.5 earlier in the week and it’s now 4 or 4.5 in spots.
When the whole world bets one side and the number moves the other way, I want to know why. In this case, I think the market is right.
The Alabama score lies a little
LSU didn’t get pushed around by the Tide. The Tigers piled up 457 yards and scored one touchdown. That’s a red-zone problem, not a talent problem.
Over the full season, few offenses move the ball like this one. LSU averages 504.1 yards and 37.1 points a game and converts half of its third downs. Sam Leavitt has thrown for 2,553 yards, and Jackson Harris has turned into a monster, catching 11 balls for 166 yards against Alabama. When an offense moves like that and stalls in the red zone, I’d rather buy it a week after the bad result than sell it.
Lane Kiffin sounded like a coach who knows the Tide game stung. “We have to go back to work,” Kiffin said, according to The Reveille. “There’s no time to sit around. We have a top 10 team coming in here and we have a chance to play another national game and get back on track.”
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Texas can’t run, and that’s a problem at night in Death Valley
Here’s the number that worries me if I’m a Texas backer: 3.5 yards per carry. The Longhorns don’t push people around up front. Raleek Brown has gotten hot lately, with 85 rushing yards, 48 receiving yards and two total scores at Missouri, but the ground game as a whole has been stuck in the mud.
That puts everything on Manning’s shoulders, and Texas has already allowed 27 sacks. Now he walks into a stadium where the crowd noise makes protection calls a guessing game, against an LSU defense that has 36 sacks. Princewill Umanmielen has 8.5 of them by himself. LSU also allows just 84.7 rushing yards a game, so Texas won’t be able to lean on the run to slow the rush down.
Manning has been good. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns against seven interceptions. But his offense needs explosive plays, and LSU’s front is built to take those away by getting home before the routes develop.
The case against me
The Texas defense is real. It allows just 17.4 points a game, and Colin Simmons has 10.5 sacks off the edge. If LSU keeps settling for field goals, a 4-point number gets dicey in a hurry. Leavitt has also thrown nine interceptions, and the Tigers are minus-two in turnover margin. One bad decision can swing a game this tight.
The Longhorns’ two losses came by three points each, to Oklahoma and Florida, so this team doesn’t get blown out.
Still, give me the home team with the better offense and the better pass rush in a night game in Baton Rouge. The line movement says the market agrees.
Projected score: LSU 27, Texas 20
The Pick: LSU -4
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