No. 12 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State
Saturday, November 14, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Boone Pickens Stadium
Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 72.5 at most books, and my play is Oklahoma State -3.5.
Picture Boone Pickens Stadium blacked out, the school’s call for this one, with a projected first-round quarterback warming up on one sideline and one of the Big 12’s leakiest pass defenses warming up on the other. That’s the whole handicap. The 8-1 team is getting points for a reason.
Mestemaker is the best player on the field. Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 2,962 yards with 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and Oklahoma State ranks third in FBS in both scoring (43.9 points per game) and passing (339.1 yards per game). Texas Tech defensive coordinator Shiel Wood didn’t sugarcoat it this week. “He’s got a great arm. He’s got great pocket awareness,” Wood told Red Raider Sports. “The rush does not bother him at all.” First-year coach Eric Morris has turned this offense into a weekly fireworks show, and the Cowboys just dropped 66 on Kansas State on the road.
Texas Tech can’t cover anybody. The Red Raiders allow 287 passing yards a game, which ranks 136th in FBS, per the ESPN/AP preview. Pistols Firing Blog notes they’ve given up 87 pass plays of 10-plus yards, 12th in the Big 12. West Virginia just hung 48 on them in Lubbock. Wood admitted there have been coverage busts in every game, and when asked why, he said, “We’ve been trying to answer that question ourselves.” That’s not a quote you want from your defensive coordinator the week you face the Big 12’s top passer.
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The Red Raiders have a new quarterback and a first road test. Tommy Castellanos took over after Will Hammond was benched following the loss at Cincinnati. He’s 2-0 as the starter with seven touchdown passes, no picks and 219 rushing yards, per Pistols Firing. That’s real production. But he’s completing 56.8% of his passes, and Saturday is his first road start for Tech, at night, in a loud building. Texas Tech’s best path is the ground game, where it ranks 13th in FBS at 214.8 yards per game behind J’Koby Williams (954 yards). Oklahoma State’s run defense ranks 82nd, so expect Tech to lean on Williams and Castellanos’s legs to keep Mestemaker on the bench.
The red zone tips it. Tech’s red zone defense lets opponents score on 86.7% of trips, 90th nationally, while OSU’s offense scores on 90.6%. The Cowboys are also 7-2 against the spread this season, while Texas Tech is 4-5. Oklahoma State keeps beating the number. Tech keeps letting people hang around.
The case against me. Oklahoma State’s defense is not good either. It ranks 93rd in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game and gave up 51 at Iowa State and 35 at Houston, both losses. If Castellanos and Williams control the clock and keep the ball away from Mestemaker, a 3.5-point spread could easily be a field goal game the other way. The forecast also shows a decent chance of rain and gusty wind, which could slow the passing game and help the team that runs it better. And Tech has only lost once all season. This is not a team that folds.
Still, I want the better quarterback at home against one of the worst pass defenses he’s seen. Oklahoma State moves the ball through the air, Texas Tech has shown no fix for it, and the Cowboys have made a habit of clearing the bar.
Projected score: Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 33
The Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
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