Montana State Bobcats at No. 23 BYU Cougars
Thursday, November 12, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Marriott Center
BYU is a 23.5-point favorite at most books with the total at 164.5. My play is Montana State +23.5.
The last time these two programs met, Ronald Reagan was in the White House and BYU won by a single point, 90-89, back in November 1987, per KSL Sports. Nobody expects it to be that tight on Thursday. The question is whether it gets as lopsided as the market thinks.
BYU’s offense is a flamethrower. The Cougars are 3-0 and have hung exactly 300 points on Ohio State, Omaha and Queens. They’ve made about 46% of their threes in every one of those games, and Robert Wright III is pouring in 25 points a night while committing fewer than one turnover per game. Dawson Baker, back from a season-ending knee injury last Thanksgiving, said on his podcast he’d play Thursday, according to KSL. That’s a deep, dangerous home team.
But the defense has left the door cracked. BYU is giving up 10 made threes a game, including 14 to Queens on Tuesday. The Cougars were favored by 28.5 in that one and won by just 16. Vanquish The Foe’s Robby McCombs wrote that BYU “didn’t look fully dialed in and had defensive lulls,” and he flagged the Cougars getting outrebounded by a small Queens team.
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This is not Omaha. Montana State was picked to win the Big Sky in both the coaches and media polls, and Matt Logie’s group brings back 10 players from an 18-14 team that finished second in the league. Veterans don’t panic in a loud gym in November. The Bobcats also shoot it: 11.5 made threes per game so far, which is exactly the leak BYU hasn’t plugged.
They lost by 10 at Colorado State without Jed Miller, their unanimous first-team All-Big Sky guard. With Miller back against Long Beach State, he hit 4 of 8 from deep and the Bobcats won by 13. Jeremiah Davis, the Big Sky Player of the Week and a former all-defensive pick, is the type of physical guard who can at least make Wright work for his numbers.
The number is the whole bet. KenPom projects BYU 90, Montana State 72, an 18-point gap. Bart Torvik has these teams 23rd and 127th. The market is asking BYU to win by nearly two possessions more than the best ratings expect. Early-season ratings still lean on preseason assumptions, so I don’t treat that gap as gospel, but five-plus points is a lot of cushion for a veteran team that has covered both of its games.
The case against me. BYU’s shooting is real, and the Cougars covered a 33.5-point spread against Omaha by scoring 108. If they get hot early and Kevin Young’s bench keeps the pedal down, 24 points can come quickly in Provo. Some shops are also hanging lower numbers, so this play only works if you get +23.5 or close to it. Below +20, I’d pass.
Projected score: BYU 89, Montana State 71
The Pick: Montana State +23.5 (-110)
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