MLB Picks

Jensen analyzes why Washington’s recent 13-2 explosion over Philadelphia creates moneyline value at +218, despite Cristopher Sanchez’s perfect start through six innings.

Jensen analyzes the misleading ERAs in Mets vs Cardinals, finding value in Peralta’s elite peripherals despite ugly surface numbers against Liberatore’s unsustainable early performance.

Shane Smith’s catastrophic 16.20 ERA faces Sandy Alcantara’s perfect 0.00 start as Chicago visits Miami. Jensen breaks down why the moneyline provides value despite the obvious pitching mismatch.

Kevin Gausman’s elite early-season form creates a significant starter advantage over Kyle Freeland’s control issues. Despite Colorado’s recent 14-run explosion, the pitching gap and Toronto’s systematic approach make the moneyline the right play.

Jensen analyzes why Tuesday’s 8-run outburst is masking the real story in this Pirates-Reds matchup. With Andrew Abbott’s pristine 0.00 ERA facing Paul Skenes’ command struggles, the total looks inflated by early-season noise.

Chris Sale’s perfect early-season form creates a substantial pitching edge over Luis Severino’s struggling 3.60 ERA, while the Braves’ superior offensive depth and home field advantage provide multiple paths to victory despite Oakland’s recent offensive surge.

Jensen analyzes the pitching matchup between Erick Fedde and Janson Junk, focusing on command and efficiency in a dome environment where Miami’s home moneyline offers value despite key injuries.

Jensen breaks down why Bubba Chandler’s superior command and strikeout ability creates value in the Pirates moneyline despite their slow start to the season.

Jensen sees value in Washington’s +153 moneyline after their dominant 13-2 victory over Philadelphia. The Nationals’ offensive momentum and early-season run differential advantage create an edge the market hasn’t properly priced.

Jensen analyzes the pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Ryan Feltner as Colorado’s injury-depleted lineup faces a steep moneyline in Toronto, despite their 14-run explosion Monday night.

Jose Suarez’s elite 1.86 ERA from 2025 faces Aaron Civale’s troubling 4.85 ERA in a pitching matchup that favors Atlanta more than the -156 moneyline suggests.

Jose Soriano’s dominant early command (10.5 K/9, 0 ERA) creates moneyline value against Jameson Taillon’s declining stuff from 2025. The Angels get plus money despite a clear pitching advantage.

Jensen analyzes the pitching matchup between Shane McClanahan and Brandon Woodruff, focusing on command differentials and Tampa Bay’s injury-depleted lineup in Tuesday’s game at American Family Field.

The Cardinals are getting inflated home support in a spot where the pitching disparity should be driving this line much wider. Kodai Senga brings legitimate front-line stuff against Andre Pallante, who posted replacement-level production last season.

Jensen analyzes the Red Sox vs Astros pitching matchup but finds the market has efficiently priced the obvious edges, making the disciplined play a pass despite Houston’s apparent advantages.