Joe Jensen

Lorenzen vs. Wrobleski is a clearer mismatch than the posted 9.5 total implies. The under is priced at -105 — nearly flat — despite one starter carrying a 2.80 ERA and the other a 6.91. The breakdown is inside.

Imai’s 6.14 ERA and -0.36 WAR in 48.1 innings represent one of the more damaging starter profiles on the mid-July slate — and he’s drawing a Washington lineup that hunts fastballs. The moneyline has this one priced at -118, far short of the -130 to -135 range the starter differential would justify. The full read is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two teams runs alongside a deeper starter mismatch — Seattle’s relief corps is missing multiple arms to injury, leaving Woo with a thin safety net behind him. The Marlins are sitting at -116 on the moneyline despite a starter with a 9-1 record and a 2.96 WAR that dwarfs his counterpart’s 0.97. The breakdown is inside.

deGrom’s 0.993 WHIP versus Soriano’s 1.32 is a traffic-suppression gap the flat juice at -105 on the under isn’t fully accounting for. An Angels lineup that has scored 8 runs over three games — without Trout, Moncada, or Rodriguez — walks into Globe Life Field facing one of the cleanest command profiles in the league. The edge is explained inside.

San Diego’s .671 OPS ranks second-fewest among contenders, and Arizona isn’t far behind at .692 — two offenses that haven’t been scoring at a rate to clear 8.5 on a consistent basis. The total sits at 8.5 with the under at -105, inside a Petco Park that carries a 0.92 park factor. Find out which way this one goes.

Tropicana Field’s 0.95 park factor turns Warren’s baserunner problem into a compounding one — 20 defensive errors in 15 games means every extra runner is magnified in this dome. Tampa Bay sits at -118 against a projected 4.2-4.2 split, a number that doesn’t account for the WHIP gap or a Yankees lineup that whiffed 17 times Monday. See how this one plays out.

Atlanta’s .725 team OPS is below average at full strength — and tonight’s lineup is further hollowed out by three IL absences. The total is posted at 8 with the Under already juiced to -114, meaning the books have done the same Skenes math everyone else has. Find out which way this one goes.

Ginn vs. Skubal is a clearer mismatch than the posted total of 8 at -105 implies. Skubal’s 1.1 BB/9 and a 43.6% whiff changeup face an Oakland lineup already down Soderstrom, Rooker, Wilson, and Langeliers — the market may still be anchoring to Oakland’s full-roster baseline. The edge is explained inside.

Boyd’s four-seamer at 92.7 mph with a .377 xwOBA against is the kind of primary offering that keeps Baltimore’s middle of the order dangerous. The total sits at 9.5 with the Over priced at +100 and the Under at -122 — the market has already shaded this number, yet the projected combined output still falls short of the line. The analysis is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two clubs is narrower than the gap on the mound — Cleveland’s relief unit posts a 3.80 ERA, but it’s Bradley’s strikeout volume versus Cantillo’s baserunner traffic that actually defines the run environment here. The total is posted at 8.5 with the under at -108, pricing a razor-thin 0.4-run over edge against a slate missing Ramirez, Jeffers, and a compromised Buxton. The analysis is inside.