Joe Jensen breaks down Thursday’s Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills preseason Week 3 matchup with a spread play on the Bills at home, backed by significant line movement and Buffalo’s undefeated preseason.
Joe Jensen
Phillies vs. Mariners Pick: T-Mobile’s 0.92 Park Factor Changes This Total
T-Mobile Park’s 0.92 run factor changes the math on a 7.0 total — especially when both starters carry legitimate swing-and-miss arsenals. The under is sitting at -118 against a over at -102, a gap that signals consensus without fully closing the door on value. See how this one plays out.
Guardians vs. Angels Pick: Cantillo’s 9.94 K/9 Against a 29th-Ranked Offense
The Angels rank 29th in runs scored this season, and Cantillo’s changeup holds hitters to a .257 xwOBA — a combination that quietly caps the Angels half of this total. The over/under is sitting at 8.5 (-113 under), a number the projected combined score of 8.7 barely grazes. Find out which way this one goes.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Pick: Boyd’s 1.39 HR/9 Meets Rodriguez’s 155-Inning Case
Boyd vs. Rodriguez is a clearer mismatch than the current total of 8.5 at -102 implies. The Over is already taxed at -118, collecting a premium on a scenario that requires both offenses to fire near their ceiling — while a depleted Cubs bullpen sitting seven relievers deep on the IL quietly suppresses late-inning run upside. The analysis is inside.
Reds vs. Giants Prediction: Lodolo’s .485 Sinker xwOBA at Oracle Park
The bullpen gap between these two teams cuts deeper than the surface lines suggest — the Reds are already missing Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson, while Lodolo’s tendency to generate walks and hard contact puts San Francisco’s relief unit in a far better structural position late. The Giants sit at -111 despite owning a clear pitching edge on the mound tonight, a price that treats this more like a coin flip than the starter profiles support. The edge is explained inside.
Rays vs. Tigers Prediction: Peralta’s 5.33 ERA Walks Into the Wrong Ballpark
Peralta’s 5.33 ERA and .349 xwOBA against his primary four-seamer put him directly in the crosshairs of a Tigers lineup that features Dingler’s .426 xwOBA and Valencia’s 10.3% barrel rate. The moneyline sits at -116 for the home side — a price that barely reflects how wide the starter gap actually is. The pick is inside.
Guardians vs. Angels Pick: Williams’ Changeup Meets a Gutted Lineup at a Suppressing Park
Angel Stadium’s run suppression changes the weight of every margin play in a game set at 7.0 — and tonight it sits behind a starter posting a 42.6% whiff rate on his primary put-away pitch. The Under is priced at +101 despite a projected 8.4 combined runs, a gap that keeps this from being a lock and exactly why the market is still offering positive money. The pick is inside.
Brewers vs Mets MLB Picks, Odds & Prediction for Tuesday, August 25
Joe Jensen breaks down Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets MLB matchup with a total play, backed by two quality left-handed starters and Citi Field’s slight pitcher’s park factors.
Orioles vs. Cardinals Prediction: Two Cold Offenses, One Neutral Park
Baltimore’s .713 team OPS and St. Louis’s .699 rank among the softest offensive profiles in baseball — neither lineup consistently punishes bad pitching. The total is set at 8.5 with the under sitting at +100, a price that reflects how unsettled this run environment actually is. The angle is inside.
Royals vs. Blue Jays Pick: Scherzer’s 7.40 ERA Breaks the 8.5 Total
Rogers Centre’s neutral dome environment strips away any weather variable that might naturally suppress run scoring — which means this total lives and dies on what the starters actually do. The Over is priced at -120 against a pitcher with 12 home runs allowed in 45 innings, while the Under collects a discount at -101 that the underlying ERA profiles don’t justify. See how this one plays out.