Singer’s 1.72 HR/9 rate and a cutter that can’t close out at-bats become a structural problem at Great American Ball Park against Walker and Burleson. The total is posted at 9.0 (Over -108), but the projected run environment clears that by a full run. The pick is inside.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings preseason Week 2 matchup with a spread play on the Vikings at home, backed by line movement and coaching continuity.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns preseason Week 2 matchup with a total play backed by two first-year head coaches, joint practices, and significant Under line movement.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts preseason Week 2 matchup with a total play backed by both teams’ backup QB rotations and joint practices this week.
Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions preseason Week 2 matchup with a spread play on the Lions at home, backed by significant line movement and situational factors.
Joe Jensen breaks down Friday night’s Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos preseason Week 2 matchup with a total play backed by Sean Payton’s Over-leaning history and significant line movement upward.
Jobe’s four-seamer sits at 98.0 mph but carries a .501 xwOBA-against — raw velocity without command is a liability, and Pittsburgh’s Cruz and Valdez elevate hard fastballs. The under is posted at -108 while the model projects 8.9 total runs, but that projection leans almost entirely on Jobe’s volatility, not on Detroit cracking Skenes’ 27.2% whiff fastball and .203 xwOBA sweeper. The pick is inside.
Gilbert vs. May is a clearer mismatch than the Brewers’ -125 moneyline implies — the starter edge runs firmly in Seattle’s favor through the early innings. But Milwaukee’s .733 OPS lineup, a +158 run differential, and a 3.43 bullpen ERA create a back-half advantage the price has not fully absorbed. The edge is explained inside.
Nola’s fastball family is posting a .401 xwOBA against and 30 home runs allowed in 130 innings — a catastrophic rate that puts his side of this matchup at a steep disadvantage. The moneyline has the Phillies at -123 while the Marlins sit at +114, despite a projected scoring margin of just 0.1 runs. The breakdown is inside.
Warren vs. Bassitt is a clearer mismatch than the Yankees -121 moneyline implies. Bassitt’s 1.62 WHIP and a Baltimore bullpen now missing Helsley and Akin are being priced within one vig point of a 70-55 club with a +87 run differential. The full read is inside.