Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, August 22, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Lucas Oil Stadium
Saturday afternoon’s early game at Lucas Oil Stadium is another preseason spot where the market has been telling us to bet the Under, and both the situational factors and the Week 1 evidence back up that read.
The Colts are 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 36.5. This game opened with Indianapolis as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 37.5. Both numbers have moved in aligned directions since — the spread jumped two full points toward the Colts, and the total dropped a point to 36.5. When a preseason line moves that way on both sides simultaneously, sharp money is telling you exactly what to expect: a low-scoring game where the home team wins comfortably.
Here’s what’s driving the movement.
Daniel Jones is not playing. Shane Steichen confirmed the plan directly at his post-practice presser earlier this month, saying “I don’t want to take any chances with Daniel out there in the preseason right now.” Jones is coming off a torn Achilles suffered in Week 14 of the 2025 season against the Jaguars. He’s fully participating in training camp and looks sharp, but Steichen isn’t going to risk his starting quarterback in an exhibition game. That means Riley Leonard, a second-year quarterback competing for the backup job, will start and play the first half. Anthony Richardson Sr. — the former number four overall pick who lost the starting battle last preseason — will take over in the second half.
That’s two young quarterbacks with major consistency issues running the Colts offense for the entire game. Both have been fighting each other for the QB2 role, and neither has separated in training camp. Steichen described the competition as “back and forth right now” and added “there’s been flashes, but yeah, there’s work to be done for sure.”
On the Falcons side, first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski is working through his own quarterback situation. Tua Tagovailoa started the Week 1 preseason opener against Denver, and he’s the presumed starter for the regular season. Michael Penix Jr., who was Atlanta’s incumbent starter, is dealing with a knee injury and hasn’t been cleared for 11-on-11 team drills. That leaves the Falcons cycling Tua and backups against the Colts’ rotating quarterback show.
The joint practices earlier in the week are a critical piece too.
The Colts and Falcons are holding joint practices at the Colts’ facility on Wednesday, August 19 and Thursday, August 20 — the two days leading right into Saturday’s game. When two teams practice together in the days before a preseason game, veteran starters typically get their real competitive work done during the practice sessions rather than in the game itself. That’s the entire philosophy behind joint practices: controlled environments, live reps against unfamiliar opponents, without the injury risk of live game action. What that means for Saturday is that any Falcons starters who do play will see limited snaps, and both teams are essentially running out backup rotations for the majority of the game.
Now the Week 1 data.
The Colts opened preseason last Thursday with a 13-13 tie against the Patriots. Combined score of 26 points, well below the game’s total of 38.5. Anthony Richardson played 27 snaps in the first half and struggled with rhythm. Riley Leonard was inconsistent in the second half. The Colts’ offense simply couldn’t sustain drives against an opposing defense. Now Leonard is starting from the jump this Saturday, and Richardson is coming in for the second half against a Falcons defense that will be trying to prove itself under Stefanski’s new coaching regime.
The Falcons’ Week 1 was more offensively productive — a 33-17 loss to the Broncos that combined for 50 points, but that game was primarily driven by Denver’s Sean Payton-led offense. Atlanta’s own scoring was much more modest at 17 points.
Add it all up: two teams running backup and competition QBs for most of the game, joint practices already giving starters their real reps, Colts Week 1 game barely reaching 26 combined points, and a line that has moved sharply toward the Under. The 36.5 number is a fair one that’s already been trimmed, and I still think it’s the right side.
I looked at the side too. Colts -3.5 at home laying more than a field goal in preseason is defensible with the home-field advantage and Steichen’s Year 4 continuity. But preseason spreads that big can flip on garbage-time possessions, and the total gives me the cleaner read with more supporting data behind it.
The Pick: Falcons/Colts Under 36.5
