Quick Recap:
• Record: 4-2
• Units: +4.2
• Best Win: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Over 11 (-2.0u)
Joe Jensen closed May 7 with a +4.2-unit profit on a 4-2 graded card, a result that looks clean on the surface but required some resilience to reach. The issue wasn’t volume—it was where the exposure landed. Jensen allocated his two largest positions to an over at Coors Field and a home favorite against the Athletics, and both lost. When your top-of-the-card bets miss, even a string of correct calls at lower odds may not be enough to save the night. In this case, four moneyline winners at modest juice—three at near pick-em prices and one at -120—were enough to push the ledger into the black.
Mets at Rockies
Pick: Over 11 | Result: Lost (-2.00u)
Jensen risked 2.0 units on the over in Denver, and it never had a chance. The Rockies beat the Mets 6-2, falling three runs short of the total in a game that looked promising early. New York grabbed a 2-0 lead in the second, and Colorado answered with single runs in the fourth and sixth to tie it at 2-2 through seven. Then Jake McCarthy’s eighth-inning grand slam blew the game open, but by that point the over was already dead. McCarthy matched a career high with five RBI and hit his second homer in as many days, snapping a six-game Rockies losing streak. The Rockies avoided just their third winless homestand of at least six games in franchise history, but the offense came too late and too concentrated to help the over. After backing the Mets’ moneyline successfully the day before in a 10-5 shootout, this was a frustrating reversal—Coors Field delivered eight runs instead of the expected fireworks.
Pirates at Diamondbacks
Pick: Pirates ML (-108) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Jensen went back to Pittsburgh for game two of the series after a successful Pirates moneyline play the day before, and the Pirates delivered again with a 4-2 win in Phoenix. Mitch Keller (4-1) was sharp through six-plus innings, retiring 10 straight batters between Corbin Carroll’s third-inning solo homer and Ildemaro Vargas’ leadoff single in the seventh. Keller exited after 84 pitches, having allowed just four hits and two runs. Brandon Lowe provided the offensive spark with three hits including his 10th homer, and Joey Bart added a solo shot. The Pirates built a 4-1 lead by the sixth and held on comfortably. This was a clean win—the pitching edge played out, and Pittsburgh’s offense did just enough. Risking 2.16 units at -108 returned 2.0 units, a solid building block on a night that needed multiple winners to offset the early loss.
Twins at Nationals
Pick: Nationals ML (-108) | Result: Won (+1.50u)
Washington bounced back from a 15-2 blowout loss the night before—a game Jensen had backed Minnesota in and lost—to beat the Twins 7-5. Keibert Ruiz was the story, homering, doubling twice, and driving in four runs. His seventh-inning solo shot off John Klein (0-1) broke a 5-5 tie, and Curtis Mead added an RBI single later in the frame to provide insurance. Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers matched Ruiz with three hits, including a homer and two doubles, but it wasn’t enough. PJ Poulin (3-0) earned the win in relief, and Gus Varland notched his fourth save. After losing on the Twins the day before, this was a successful pivot back to the Nationals. Jensen risked 1.62 units at -108 and collected 1.5 units, a measured winner that kept the card afloat.
Athletics at Phillies
Pick: Phillies ML (-126) | Result: Lost (-1.26u)
This was the other high-exposure miss, and it was ugly. The Athletics crushed Philadelphia 12-1, avoiding a three-game sweep in emphatic fashion. J.T. Ginn pitched eight stellar innings, and the A’s offense exploded early with four runs in the first and three more in the third. Zack Gelof homered, tripled, and drove in three, while Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Jacob Wilson all went deep. The Phillies managed just one run on Kyle Schwarber’s solo homer. Jensen had successfully backed Philadelphia the day before in a 6-3 win, but this was a complete reversal—the Phillies were outclassed from the first pitch. The A’s are leading the AL West, and they played like it. Risking 1.26 units on a home favorite at -126, this was a missed read—the handicap didn’t hold, and the result was never competitive.
Orioles at Marlins
Pick: Marlins ML (-120) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Miami avoided a series sweep and snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-3 walk-off win over Baltimore, decided by a ninth-inning throwing error. Joe Mack, called up from the minors earlier in the week, hit a two-out double off Andrew Kittredge (0-1) and scored the winning run when third baseman Coby Mayo bobbled Javier Sanoja’s grounder and made a wild throw to first. Pete Alonso had tied the game for Baltimore in the eighth, but the Orioles couldn’t hold it. Liam Hicks homered for Miami, driving in two of the Marlins’ four runs. After losing on Miami the day before in a 7-4 defeat, Jensen got the bounce-back win here. Risking 2.40 units at -120 returned 2.0 units—a fortunate finish, but a winner nonetheless.
Rays at Sox
Pick: Rays ML (+102) | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Tampa Bay extended its winning streak to seven games with an 8-4 victory over Boston in the series opener. Pinch-hitter Chandler Simpson broke a sixth-inning tie with a two-run single and added an RBI triple in the eighth. Junior Caminero hit a two-run homer in the ninth, his 10th of the season, and Yandy Díaz collected his 1,000th career hit. The Rays have now won 13 of 14 overall, and they used four relievers to cover the final five innings after their starter exited early. Hunter Bigge (1-0) pitched two scoreless innings to earn the win. After successfully backing Tampa Bay the day before in a 3-0 win over Toronto, Jensen rode the hot hand again. Risking 1.96 units at +102 returned 2.0 units, a clean win on a team that’s rolling.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Jensen’s side plays went 2-0 on the night, though these lean recommendations carry no official unit allocation.
Rangers at Yankees
The Yankees (-142) cruised past Texas 9-2, a comfortable winner that would have added value to any parlay or small-stake play.
Reds at Cubs
Chicago (-200) handled Cincinnati 8-3, another clean result that hit without drama. Both side plays landed, offering a small consolation on a night where the graded card required every winner it could get.
Missed Reads: Athletics at Phillies
Variance / Competitive Losses: Mets at Rockies (Over 11)
Clean Wins: Pirates at Diamondbacks, Nationals, Marlins, Rays at Sox
The +4.2-unit finish was earned, not lucky. Four moneyline winners at reasonable odds overcame two losses, including the highest-risk position of the night. The Phillies blowout was a clear miss, while the Coors over was a competitive loss that simply didn’t get the run support it needed. The Pirates, Nationals, Marlins, and Rays all delivered, with Tampa Bay’s hot streak and Pittsburgh’s series sweep providing the cleanest edges of the night. When the top of your card loses, you need depth—and Jensen had it.
