Quick Recap:
• Record: 6-5-1
• Units: +1.3
• Best Win: Under 8.5 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Kansas City Royals ML (-2.5u)
Joe Jensen finished June 13 at +1.3 units on a 6-5-1 graded card — a positive result that required some navigation. The day’s wins were largely clean, but the losses carried real weight. Three of the five losing plays were on higher-confidence positions risking 2.32u, 2.52u, and 2.24u respectively, meaning the card absorbed significant downside before the winners could do their work. What kept the day in the black was a combination of well-placed winners — particularly the Rays/Angels under, the Padres ML, the Braves ML, and the Tigers/Guardians under — all of which hit cleanly and at meaningful unit exposure. The push on the Dodgers/White Sox under was a non-event that neither helped nor hurt. This was a grind-out positive day, not a comfortable one.
Astros at Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals ML | Result: Lost | –2.52u
The most damaging loss on the card. Kansas City was backed at –126, risking 2.52u in game two of this series after Houston had already taken game one 10-8. The Royals had the lead late, but Jose Altuve’s tying home run in the eighth set the stage for a brutal ninth — the Royals botched a potential inning-ending double play, allowing Joey Loperfido to score the go-ahead run. Houston won 8-7. Carter Jensen had a strong night at the plate (2-for-5, two doubles, three RBI) and Bobby Witt Jr. went 3-for-5, but the Royals’ defensive miscue in the ninth was the decisive moment. This was a competitive loss with a late-game execution failure, not a missed read — Kansas City had the game in hand and let it slip.
Cardinals at Twins
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost | –1.00u
The Cardinals and Twins combined for 15 runs in game two of their series, blowing past the 8.5 total. The game was actually on track through six innings — St. Louis led 4-2 heading into the seventh — but a catastrophic seventh inning for Minnesota’s bullpen buried the under. Reliever Justin Lawrence surrendered back-to-back home runs to Ivan Herrera and Jordan Walker after retiring the first two batters, and Blaze Jordan followed with a three-run shot off Travis Adams. Five Cardinals runs in the seventh turned a manageable game into a 9-6 final. Herrera went deep twice on the night. The under was alive deep into the game; the bullpen collapse was the killer. Variance loss.
Rays at Angels
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | +2.00u
A clean win in game two of this series. The Angels shut out Tampa Bay 8-0, and the total of eight runs cleared the 8.5 with room to spare. Jose Soriano went five innings, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out five — even absorbing a line drive off his chest and shoulder area, he kept the Rays off the board. Denzer Guzman drove in three runs, Jose Siri added a two-run homer, and Donovan Walton chipped in two RBI hits. The Rays’ offense was completely neutralized, with Cedric Mullins and Yandy Diaz among the few to reach base. The under held comfortably and the 2.00u return was well-earned.
Cubs at Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML | Result: Lost | –2.32u
The Giants were backed at –116 in game two of this series, but Chicago had already won game one 5-1 and showed no signs of slowing down. Pete Crow-Armstrong homered on the very first pitch of the game off Trevor McDonald, setting the tone immediately. The Cubs added two more in the third, one in the fourth, and two more in the fifth to go up 6-1 before San Francisco could mount anything. Ben Brown held the Giants to one run on seven hits over five innings. The Giants’ offense generated little — Luis Arraez had the only RBI — and the 6-1 final was not particularly close. This one looked like a missed read given the Cubs’ momentum from game one and their dominant offensive output.
Yankees at Jays
Pick: New York Yankees ML | Result: Won | +2.00u
After dropping an Under 8 on the previous Yankees-Blue Jays game, Jensen came back with the Yankees ML in game two of the series and got it right. New York and Toronto were locked in a 1-1 tie heading into the ninth before Paul Goldschmidt delivered a 400-foot, two-run homer off Blue Jays closer Louis Varland — who had allowed just two earned runs all season and hadn’t surrendered a home run in 36 2/3 innings prior to Saturday. Fernando Cruz worked out of a bases-loaded jam in the eighth to keep it tied. The Yankees won 3-1. A clean win driven by a late-game power play against an elite closer who had simply never been tested like that before.
Marlins at Pirates
Pick: Miami Marlins ML | Result: Lost | –1.67u
After backing Pittsburgh in game one only to watch Miami win 8-3, Jensen flipped to the Marlins in game two — and ran into another late-game reversal. Miami carried a 2-2 tie into the eighth inning before Anthony Bender struck out the first two batters, then surrendered back-to-back singles, a walk, and ultimately hit Spencer Horwitz with a 97 mph sinker to force in the go-ahead run. Pittsburgh won 3-2, ending Miami’s six-game win streak. The Marlins’ offense was limited — Otto Lopez went 2-for-3 with a walk, but the lineup couldn’t push across the winning run. A competitive loss decided by a hit batter in the eighth.
Padres at Orioles
Pick: San Diego Padres ML | Result: Won | +2.00u
After losing the Padres ML in game one of this series, Jensen stayed the course and was rewarded with a dominant 9-3 San Diego win. Jackson Merrill and Samad Taylor both hit two-run homers in the first inning to stake the Padres to a 4-0 lead before Baltimore could settle in. Randy Vásquez went five innings and held the Orioles to two runs. Manny Machado and two other Padres hitters added home runs as San Diego kept the foot on the gas. Pete Alonso went 3-for-5 with a homer for Baltimore, but the Orioles never seriously threatened after the first-inning damage. A clean, convincing win that justified staying on San Diego.
Mariners at Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals ML | Result: Won | +1.00u
After backing the Mariners in game one — a 10-2 Seattle blowout — Jensen pivoted to Washington in game two and caught the bounce-back. The Nationals trailed 3-0 after Seattle’s first inning but answered with three runs in the fifth, capped by Luis García Jr.’s go-ahead two-run homer. Washington then added three more in the seventh to pull away 8-3. CJ Abrams went 3-for-4 with two RBI and two runs scored. Colt Emerson homered for Seattle for the second straight game, but the Mariners’ offense couldn’t sustain the pressure. A well-timed flip after a lopsided game one result.
Braves at Mets
Pick: Atlanta Braves ML | Result: Won | +2.00u
After losing the Braves ML in game one of this series, Jensen went back to Atlanta in game two and got the result. Eli White was the story — he matched a career high with three hits, including an RBI double in the second, a home run in the fourth, and another double in the seventh. Michael Harris II added a 392-foot homer off the advertising signage. The Braves’ pitching held the Mets to one run, with Juan Soto going 2-for-4 but the New York lineup unable to generate consistent damage. Atlanta won 3-1, snapping a three-game losing streak. A clean win at 2.08u risked, returning 2.00u.
Tigers at Guardians
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | +2.00u
After backing Cleveland ML in game one — a 3-2 Guardians win — Jensen went back to this matchup with an Under 7.5 and it delivered easily. The final was Cleveland 3, Detroit 1, for a total of just four runs. Tarik Skubal made his return from elbow surgery, throwing 80 pitches in his first start since April 29. He allowed a two-run homer to Daniel Schneemann in the third but otherwise kept Detroit in check. The Tigers scored just once — in the first inning — and that was all they’d get. Dillon Dingler went 2-for-4 with a triple and an RBI for Detroit, but the offense stalled out completely after that. A clean, comfortable under win.
Rangers at Sox
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Lost | –2.24u
The second under loss on the card, and the third straight under miss on this Rangers-Red Sox series — Jensen had already lost an Under 8.5 in the prior game. Boston won 6-3, pushing the total to nine runs. The game was actually well within the under through six innings at 3-2, but Ceddanne Rafaela’s two-run single off Robby Ahlstrom in the seventh broke the game open, and Jake Burger added a solo homer in the eighth for Texas. Jarren Duran homered and drove in two for Boston. The under was alive late, but Boston’s bullpen-aided seventh inning was the breaking point. A frustrating variance loss on a total that was competitive for most of the game.
Dodgers at Sox
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Push | 0.00u
Yoshinobu Yamamoto carried a no-hit bid into the ninth inning and the Dodgers won 7-1 — a total of exactly eight runs, landing precisely on the number for a push. Yamamoto retired his first 23 batters before a two-out error by Mookie Betts in the eighth allowed a runner to reach. Tristan Peters broke up the no-hitter with a leadoff homer in the ninth for Chicago’s only run. Max Muncy went 3-for-3 with two homers and four RBI for Los Angeles. The push was a quirk of the total landing exactly on the line — no harm done, but no return either on 2.04u risked.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 1-1 on June 13 — these are lean, low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official graded record or unit total.
Diamondbacks at Reds
Arizona was the lean at –142, but the Reds edged the Diamondbacks 2-1. A low-scoring, competitive game that didn’t go the right way — the lean missed by a single run.
Phillies at Brewers
The Over 8 lean on Philadelphia at Milwaukee hit cleanly — the Phillies and Brewers combined for 17 runs in a 9-8 final, clearing the number with ease.
Missed Reads: Cubs at Giants (SF ML)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Astros at Royals (KC ML), Cardinals at Twins (Under 8.5), Marlins at Pirates (MIA ML), Rangers at Red Sox (Under 8)
Clean Wins: Rays at Angels (Under 8.5), Yankees at Jays (NYY ML), Padres at Orioles (SD ML), Mariners at Nationals (WSH ML), Braves at Mets (ATL ML), Tigers at Guardians (Under 7.5)
A +1.3-unit finish on a 6-5-1 card is a positive result, but the path there was uneven. The losses were concentrated in high-exposure positions — the Royals ML (–2.52u), the Giants ML (–2.32u), and the Rangers/Red Sox under (–2.24u) accounted for the bulk of the downside. The wins, however, were well-distributed and largely clean: six graded plays hit without drama, and the unit returns were consistent across the board. The under plays were a mixed bag — two losses, two wins, and a push — but the ML side of the card carried the day. Where the card earned its positive finish was in staying disciplined on the win side and not letting the competitive losses compound into something worse.
