Quick Recap:
• Record: 8-1-1
• Units: +13.9
• Best Win: Over 11.5 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Under 9 (-2.1u)
Joe Jensen posted a dominant Sunday card on June 21, 2026, going 8-1-1 for +13.9 units on the day. The result was driven almost entirely by totals — eight of the ten graded picks were unders or overs — and the allocation held up well across the board. Eight 2-unit win targets cashed, one pushed, and one lost, meaning the lone damage came from a single position that got blown out in the wrong direction. When the exposure is spread evenly and the win rate is that high, the math takes care of itself. The card’s key strength was consistency: no single play carried a disproportionate share of the risk, and the graded winners came from multiple environments — pitching-dominant games, low-scoring series finales, and a couple of late-inning totals that held firm.
Pirates at Rockies
Pick: Over 11.5 | Result: Won | Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 8, Colorado Rockies 6
The over had already burned in game one of this series — the same Over 11.5 lost when the Pirates and Rockies combined for just three runs the day before. Jensen went back to the well in the series finale at Coors Field, and this time the offense showed up. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds went 2-for-5 with a homer, a double, three RBI, and two runs scored, while Jake Mangum added three hits. Colorado’s TJ Rumfield hit a three-run homer to keep the Rockies in it late, but Pittsburgh had built enough of a cushion through seven innings of steady scoring. The 14-run combined total cleared the 11.5 line with room to spare. The Pirates risked 2.36u and returned +2.00u — a clean bounce-back after the prior-day miss on the same number.
Angels at Athletics
Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML | Result: Won | Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 9, Athletics 7
Jensen had already backed the Angels ML in game one of this series — a win — and returned to the same side for the finale. Los Angeles trailed 4-0 after the first inning but rallied in dramatic fashion, with Denzer Guzman hitting a three-run homer in the eighth and Zach Neto delivering a two-run shot in the ninth to give the Angels their first lead of the game. Donovan Walton also homered and drove in three. Nick Kurtz hit his 19th homer for the A’s and Zac Gelof extended his hit streak to 24 games, but Oakland’s bullpen couldn’t hold the lead. Risked 1.85u, returned +2.00u. A clean win built on late-inning offense.
Sox at Mariners
Pick: Under 6.5 | Result: Won | Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3, Boston Red Sox 1
Logan Gilbert was the story here. The Seattle right-hander went 6⅓ innings, allowed one run on three hits, struck out eight, and walked two — a textbook pitching performance that kept the total well under the number. Dominic Canzone’s 12th homer of the season gave Seattle an early lead, and Boston’s only response was a solo shot from Nate Eaton in the third. The game finished at 4 combined runs, well clear of the 6.5 line. Risked 2.00u, returned +2.00u. A clean win driven by elite starting pitching.
Orioles at Dodgers
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Lost | Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 12, Los Angeles Dodgers 1
The lone loss on the card, and it wasn’t close. Baltimore put up 12 runs against the Dodgers, with Colton Cowser going 3-for-5 with a homer and four RBI, Blaze Alexander adding three hits and two runs, and Pete Alonso contributing a two-run homer. The Orioles scored in five of nine innings and blew the game open with a four-run seventh. Jensen had cashed an Under 9.5 in game one of this series — Baltimore 3, Los Angeles 2 — so the under premise had recent support. But the Orioles’ offense erupted in the finale, and the 13-run combined total made this a missed read in hindsight. Risked 2.08u, lost 2.08u.
Twins at Diamondbacks
Pick: Under 9.5 | Result: Won | Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4, Arizona Diamondbacks 2
The prior game in this series had gone Minnesota 16, Arizona 8 — a 24-run explosion that burned an Under 8.5. Jensen adjusted the number upward and the game delivered a tidy 6-run final. Arizona’s José Cabrera made his major-league debut and held the Twins to three hits over five-plus innings, while Minnesota’s rally came in the seventh via an Alex Jackson single and an error. Ketel Marte had two hits and two RBI for Arizona, but the offense never got going after the second inning. Risked 2.44u, returned +2.00u. A clean win after a tough prior-day loss on the same matchup.
Reds at Yankees
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4, New York Yankees 1
Chase Burns was dominant. The Cincinnati ace went five innings of one-run ball, struck out seven, and improved to 9-1 on the season — his eighth straight win. Tyler Stephenson’s three-run homer in the fourth off Yankees rookie Elmer Rodríguez was the decisive blow. New York’s only run came on a Ben Rice homer. The 5-run combined total was well under the 8.5 line. Jensen had lost an Under 9.5 in game one of this series when the Reds put up 10 runs, but Burns on the mound changed the calculus entirely. Risked 2.24u, returned +2.00u. A clean win anchored by elite pitching.
Nationals at Rays
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won | Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4, Washington Nationals 3
Jensen had cashed an Under 8.5 in game one of this series — Nationals 4, Rays 3 — and the series finale landed at the exact same score. Jonny DeLuca’s two-run homer in the seventh lifted Tampa Bay to a 4-3 comeback win. CJ Abrams had a big day for Washington with a homer, double, and two runs, but the Nationals couldn’t hold the lead. Nick Martinez allowed three runs in six innings for the Rays, and the bullpen closed it out. Seven combined runs cleared the Under 8 line. Risked 2.00u, returned +2.00u. A clean win with strong series-level continuity.
Guardians at Astros
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Won | Final Score: Houston Astros 2, Cleveland Guardians 1
Kai-Wei Teng threw six solid innings for Houston, and Yordan Alvarez provided the only offense needed with his AL-leading 25th home run in the first inning. Isaac Paredes added an RBI single in the fourth, and Cleveland’s only run came on a groundout in the fifth. The Astros’ bullpen held the 2-1 lead the rest of the way. Three combined runs — well under the 8.5 line. Jensen had lost an Under 8.5 in game one of this series when Cleveland put up 8 runs, so this was a clean bounce-back. Risked 2.10u, returned +2.00u. A dominant pitching performance made this an easy win.
Padres at Rangers
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won | Final Score: Texas Rangers 4, San Diego Padres 3
Jensen had lost an Under 7.5 in game one of this series when the teams combined for 10 runs. The series finale was a different story. Nathan Eovaldi sparkled for Texas, and the scoring was concentrated in just two innings — San Diego scored three in the third, Texas answered with three in the fourth including Wyatt Langford’s three-run homer, and Josh Jung’s go-ahead RBI single proved to be the difference. Seven combined runs cleared the 7.5 line by the slimmest of margins. Risked 2.00u, returned +2.00u. A tight win that required the final innings to stay quiet — and they did.
Mets at Phillies
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Push | Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6, New York Mets 2
Eight combined runs landed exactly on the number for a push. Philadelphia jumped out early with two runs in the first and three more in the second, with Bryce Harper going 3-for-4 with a homer and Kyle Schwarber adding a three-run shot. The Mets managed two runs — a Carson Benge homer and an A.J. Ewing RBI — but never threatened to make it a game. Jensen had lost an Under 7.5 in game one of this series when the Phillies put up 15 runs, so the adjusted number was reasonable. The push returned the 2.00u risked with no gain or loss.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
The side-play card went 0-1 on Sunday — these are lean, low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official record or unit total.
Giants at Marlins
The lean was Over 8 at -104, but San Francisco and Miami combined for just 3 runs in a 2-1 Marlins win. Both starters were sharp and the offenses went quiet all night — a pitching-dominated game that never gave the over a chance.
Missed Reads: Orioles at Dodgers (Under 9 — Baltimore erupted for 12 runs, total finished at 13)
Variance / Competitive Losses: None
Clean Wins: Pirates at Rockies (Over 11.5), Angels at Athletics (Angels ML), Sox at Mariners (Under 6.5), Twins at Diamondbacks (Under 9.5), Reds at Yankees (Under 8.5), Nationals at Rays (Under 8), Guardians at Astros (Under 8.5), Padres at Rangers (Under 7.5)
Sunday’s graded card was as clean as it gets for a totals-heavy slate. Eight wins, one push, and one loss — with the lone damage coming from a Baltimore blowout that no reasonable under read could have anticipated given the prior game in that series went 3-2. The under market was the engine all day: seven of the eight wins were unders, and every one of them finished comfortably below the number. The Angels ML was the lone side play in the graded card and it delivered with a dramatic late-inning comeback. Jensen’s even unit allocation meant no single win was carrying outsized weight, and the 8-1-1 record at consistent 2-unit exposure translated directly into a +13.9 unit day. When the card is this clean, the math is simple.
