Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz Light Heavyweight Fight Predictions

Jorge Masvidal (1-0) vs. Nate Diaz (0-1)

When: Saturday, June 1, 2024

Where: Kia Forum, Inglewood, California

TV: PPV

Weight Class: Light Heavyweights: 10 Rounds

Betting Odds Jorge Masvidal (-285), Nate Diaz (+210)—Odds by Bovada Sportsbook

Fight Analysis:

Jorge Masvidal will battle Nate Diaz at the Forum in Inglewood on June 1 in a light heavyweight main event. These two met in a UFC cage in late 2019, with Masvidal getting the win. Both men have big followings and deservedly so. Diaz has always been willing to fight anybody and was one of the toughest and multi-versatile fighters at or around his weight. Masvidal, meanwhile, took what seemed like a ho-hum career and put into overdrive in its late stages, with a series of big wins and paydays. Who has the best chance to emerge from this the winner?

We see boxing become a battleground for these kinds of strange fights, with you-tubers and former MMA standouts fighting each other in high-profile fights. Breaking down these matches can be a real challenge for fight observers more accustomed to a standard analysis involving established boxers. In this fight, we have a fighter in Diaz who lost his lone pro boxing match in 2023 to Jake Paul fighting a guy in Masvidal who had his pro boxing debut in 2005, before focusing solely on MMA.

But we do have some data, with that being a 2019 bout in the UFC where Masvidal scored a doctor’s stoppage of Diaz after 3 rounds for the BMF title. Things didn’t go well for Masvidal after that, dropping his last four MMA bouts before apparently retiring and starting his own promotion. In the end you have two guys almost 40 who haven’t really been winning a ton lately. It’s kind of screwball fight, with all due respect to each fighter’s illustrious career leading up to this. On merit alone, the notion of these two headlining a boxing event at the Forum in 2024 is pretty far-fetched. But with each man’s captivating past and rollicking fanbase, it’s still a fight that can do pretty good business.

They’re the same, while also being very different. Each man is 39 with similar dimensions, with Diaz being a little longer in height and reach. Both were former 155-pounders who settled into 170 pounds, making this 175-pound fight seem more or less a fair weight for each fighter. Each man also had an MMA fighting style that would seem conducive for boxing, with each using their hands a lot. But whereas Masvidal was a slugger, Diaz was more of a boxer, using accuracy and volume, whereas Masvidal relied on power.

It’s also possible that they were at different stages when they fought in a UFC cage in 2019. Masvidal was riding the crest of a wave that culminated in wins over Darren Till and Ben Askren. His career was at an all-time high when he met Diaz for the first time. This time around, you’re talking about a guy who has lost his last four fights, followed by being off for over a year. Is it possible that the time between now and their last fight has brought Masvidal down a notch or two?

The one thing making me hesitant to shovel dirt over Diaz’ fighting career is the nature of some of his recent losses. He closed out his UFC run with a win, before losing to Paul in a boxing match. He didn’t look that bad. Sure, he looked old, rusty, and wasn’t all that competitive for the entire fight, but he showed that his baseline is still pretty strong, hanging in there well enough with a guy who has really dedicated himself to boxing, regardless of what you think of his overall talent and worth. Also toward the end of his UFC run, he gave current UFC Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards some anxious moments, almost stopping him in the final round. He then beat Tony Ferguson and went the distance with Paul in his first boxing match. With that experience under his belt, maybe he can do better against another non-boxer and one closer to his size.

It’s interesting to see who is more effective in this context, in addition to gauging how each man’s erosion will register in this meeting. Can Diaz make it work with his more pitty-pat style, with the bigger gloves taking some sting off his shots? Is Masvidal still capable of getting after it and landing fight-ending shots, again with the bigger gloves and different setting? I’d almost tend to think the extra glove-padding and shorter rounds could help Diaz, who knows how to use his size to keep opponents on the outside. And that while Masvidal has always seemed more dangerous with his hands, Diaz’ overall boxing style is maybe easier to envision manifesting in these conditions.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that the ensuing nearly-five years since their last fight have been more unkind to Masvidal. Not that Diaz is fresh as a daisy and hasn’t shown depreciation in his own right, but I don’t think he has slipped as far in the time since their first fight as Masvidal has. And losing your last four fights, retiring, and becoming a promoter seems like a weird lead-in to a fight in foreign conditions fetching nearly 3-to-1. I’ll take a flyer on Diaz in this one.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting on Nate Diaz at -210 betting odds. It’s not an easy pick to make considering their prior MMA bout and Diaz not really shining in recent appearances. But I sense he’s in a little better shape overall and not quite as removed from his peak as Masvidal is, which could be enough in a setting where neither man is a proven winner.