No. 5 Arizona Wildcats vs No. 22 UCLA Bruins
Monday, November 2, 2026
10:00 PM ET, T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
Arizona is a 4.5-point favorite over UCLA with a total of 149.5, and my play is UCLA +4.5 (-108).
“I’m sure a lot of (fans) are going to hinge the hopes of our season on how Monday night goes. I’m not, but I’m sure they will.” That’s Tommy Lloyd, and he’s right on both counts. Fans will treat this like a referendum. The smarter read is that a Final Four team just lost its best guards, is missing its starting power forward, and opens against the coach who has made every one of these games a street fight.
The Wildcats are loaded, just not finished. Arizona went 36-3 and reached the Final Four last season before falling to Michigan. The two guys who hold it together are back: 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas, the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, and Ivan Kharchenkov. Both averaged 10.4 points a game, and Krivas swatted 73 shots. The backcourt is a different story. Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Koa Peat are gone. In their place are North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon, Washington transfer JJ Mandaquit and freshman Caleb Holt, a McDonald’s All-American co-MVP who averaged a team-high 17.7 points in three exhibitions. He’s the real deal, and he’s about to make his college debut against Mick Cronin.
The bigger problem is RJ Godfrey. The Clemson transfer was supposed to start at the four, but a Texas judge tentatively denied his restraining order and he is not eligible for the opener. That shoves Kharchenkov to power forward and puts Bryce James in the starting lineup. Kharchenkov now has to guard bigger bodies and stay out of foul trouble, and the bench up front is thin.
UCLA kept the band together. In a sport where rosters turn over like rental cars, Cronin brought back Trent Perry (12.6 points per game), Eric Dailey Jr. (11.6) and Xavier Booker, who hit 43.3% of his threes last season. Perry slides to point guard, and he handed out 11 assists against one turnover in two exhibition wins. Add Texas Tech transfer Jaylen Petty, who knocked down 69 threes last season, and Nikola Kusturica, a 6-foot-9 Serbian teenager who poured in 24.6 points a game at the FIBA U17 World Cup. Arizona’s staff noticed. “I think this team has a chance to be one of the best defensive teams (Cronin) has had,” said Wildcats associate head coach Jack Murphy.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Cronin plays the slow game, and slow games stay close. KenPom’s preseason ratings put UCLA’s tempo 333rd in the country, among the slowest in Division I, and its defense 14th. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for the better team to pull away. The series backs that up. UCLA won 57-54 in Phoenix two years ago, and Arizona needed late threes from Anthony Dell’Orso and Jaden Bradley to escape 69-65 at Intuit Dome last November. Cronin’s plan that night was obvious: go at the freshmen. Kharchenkov, Peat and Burries shot a combined 6 of 18 with 11 turnovers. This year Arizona has a new freshman (Holt), a new point guard (Dixon) and a forward playing out of position. Lloyd knows what’s coming. “He’s really good at that game,” he said of Cronin’s knack for finding matchups he likes.
The market is leaning the same way. Arizona opened around -218 on the moneyline and has drifted to about -198, and the juice on the UCLA side has gotten more expensive, even with roughly two-thirds of public picks on the Wildcats. That’s the kind of quiet money I like to follow.
Why I could be wrong. Arizona might simply be better. KenPom ranks the Wildcats seventh with a top-five defense, Krivas could feast on a UCLA front line that’s long but not heavy, and Lloyd is 7-3 against the Bruins. Arizona is also 11-2 in Las Vegas under Lloyd and hasn’t lost a season opener since 2006. If Holt plays like a lottery pick from the jump, this gets away fast. I’d still take UCLA at +4, but at +3.5 I’d pass.
Krivas gets his, Holt has a few freshman moments, and Perry keeps UCLA calm enough to make this a one-possession game late. Arizona wins, but not by enough. Projected score: Arizona 74, UCLA 72.
The Pick: UCLA +4.5
Back Cronin’s grinders with the points and bring some extra bankroll into Monday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet UCLA +4.5 and the rest of your opening-week college basketball picks.
