Memphis Tigers vs No. 18 Iowa State Cyclones
Monday, November 2, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Sanford Pentagon (Sioux Falls, SD)
Iowa State is a 14.5-point favorite over Memphis with a total of 155.5, and my play is Iowa State -14.5 (-112).
Fourteen and a half is a lot of points to lay in a season opener. It’s not enough when the underdog’s best big man is stuck in street clothes.
That’s the whole case, really. Memphis spent the summer rebuilding around a 6-foot-9 Serbian named Nemanja Popovic, and on opening night he can’t play. The NCAA cleared him for two years of eligibility but hit him with a six-game withholding period for pro games he played overseas. Memphis is appealing, and as of Sunday there was still no ruling. Penny Hardaway didn’t sugarcoat what that means: “He’s like the backbone of that offense, because we go through him for a lot of things that we run.”
Penny needs this one more than anybody. Memphis went 13-19 last season, the program’s worst year since 1969-70, and Hardaway landed near the top of the hot-seat lists at ESPN, CBS Sports and Yahoo this fall. He kept two players and brought in 13 new ones. “I don’t feel pressure,” he said last week. “Last year, to me, was a one-off.” The new guys can play, too. Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid dropped 26 on Mississippi State in a 75-58 exhibition win, and Tylik Weeks led the Sun Belt in scoring at Southern Miss. But the real test came in Fayetteville, where Arkansas beat the Tigers 93-81 and Memphis gave the ball away 15 times. Reid had five of those turnovers.
Now picture that backcourt against Iowa State. T.J. Otzelberger has fielded a top-15 defense in all six of his seasons in Ames, and last year’s finished fifth. KenPom’s preseason numbers have this year’s group second in the country. These guys live on deflections, and Tamin Lipsey is back for a fifth year (thanks to a court order) after averaging 2.3 steals a game last season. Iowa State lost to Creighton by three in an exhibition without him. With him, the Cyclones went to Northwestern and won by 35.
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The ratings were built before the bad news hit. KenPom has Iowa State sixth and Memphis 86th, which works out to roughly a 13- or 14-point game on a neutral floor. But those preseason numbers came out in mid-October, two weeks before the NCAA’s ruling on Popovic. Any number leaning on them is pricing a Memphis team that won’t be on the floor tonight. Without Popovic, the frontcourt falls to Maxim Logue, Corneilous Williams and William Whorton. Against Arkansas, those three combined for six points and five rebounds. Blake Buchanan, Iowa State’s 6-foot-10 senior, grabbed 10 boards at Northwestern. That’s a mismatch, and it shows up on every possession: on the glass, at the rim, and on every Memphis set that used to run through the post.
Then there’s Ryan Prather Jr. The Robert Morris transfer came off the bench at Northwestern and went 6-of-7 from three for 25 points. If he’s the scorer Iowa State needs to replace Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic, this offense won’t fall off as far as people think. And Sioux Falls sits a lot closer to Ames than to Memphis, so expect plenty of cardinal and gold in the seats.
The case against laying the big number
Iowa State is missing someone too. Killyan Toure, the sophomore wing the NBA scouts like, had shoulder surgery in August and isn’t expected back until January. The Cyclones also lost their top two scorers, and opening nights can turn sloppy. Memphis likes to run (KenPom has them 20th in tempo), and a couple of quick threes late can turn a 20-point game into a 13-point backdoor cover before anyone notices. Hardaway is also 8-0 in season openers. And if the NCAA rules in Popovic’s favor before tip, the whole angle is gone.
Projected score
Iowa State 82, Memphis 66. The Cyclones’ pressure gets to a Memphis offense with no post to lean on, and the lead gets into the high teens by the second half. I’d lay it up to -15.5. At -16, or if Popovic is suddenly cleared, I’m out.
The Pick: Iowa State -14.5 (-112)
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