Duke vs. Florida State Odds & Predictions 1/18/22

by | Jan 18, 2022 | cbb

Duke Blue Devils (14-2 Su, 9-5-2 ATS) Vs. Florida State Seminoles (10-5 Su, 6-9 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 18, 9 P.M.
Where: Donald Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Fla.
TV: Espn
Point Spread: Duke -5/FSU +5
Moneyline: Duke -200/FSU +165
Total: 145
(Attention Parlay Bettors: Same Bet - Better Payout Odds )

Last Time Out:

Duke beat N.C. State 88-73; Florida State beat Syracuse 76-71.

About the Matchup:

Thanks to a quirk of scheduling, this game marks Duke’s first trip to Tallahassee since 2019, as well as Mike Krzyzewski’s last visit to Florida’s state capital as the Blue Devils’ coach. Odds are, this is one building he’ll be happy to say goodbye to because Florida State has proven to be a tough out at home against Duke. The Seminoles have saved their best for the Blue Devils. In recent years, three of the past five meetings between the teams in Tallahassee have been decided by three points or less.

This one didn’t look like it would be added to that list, but Florida State seems to have figured out what it was doing wrong and flipped its season around, winning its past three games to move back into the conversation for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. With the ACC being very much down this season, however, chances to pick up quality wins are going to be few and far between, and this one is Florida State’s last real chance at a quality win that will come in Tallahassee. The Seminoles still have chances to improve the resume against Miami, North Carolina, and the return game against the Blue Devils, but all of those games will be played on the road.

Duke doesn’t have to worry about whether it’s going to get into the tournament this time around, as the Blue Devils have mostly dominated in the ACC to this point. But Duke isn’t without its flaws, as the loss to Miami indicated. The Blue Devils are also one of the teams with the highest ceiling in the country, though, and they are perfectly capable of blowing a game open if they’re ready when their moment comes around.

Scouting the Blue Devils:

There’s one basic blueprint for beating Duke: make the Blue Devils make mistakes. Miami played Duke to a draw in shooting and got destroyed on the backboards when the teams met in Durham, but the Hurricanes won the game because Duke turned it over 17 times to Miami’s 5. In the one-and-done era, Duke is no longer the veteran squad that doesn’t beat itself; it’s now prone to freshman mistakes that come with a young squad.
The Blue Devils do make up for that with a powerful inside presence, as Paolo Banchero averages 17.9 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, and Duke complements him with Mark Williams — when Williams is able to stay on the floor. Williams only averages around 20 minutes a night, in part because of foul trouble. That ties back into the earlier suggestion to beat the Blue Devils: make them beat themselves.

Scouting the Seminoles:

This Florida State team has taken a few surprising losses, but the Seminoles appear to finally have things moving in the right direction. Florida State comes in as a defense-first team that’s had to play a lot of great offenses, as the Seminoles have faced the seventh-hardest schedule for a defense in the country. Because of that, the Seminoles are giving up more points than usual and having a much tougher time defending the 3.

However, the return game with Syracuse suggests that Florida State’s problems are more schedule-based than talent and discipline-based, which is why FSU is starting to turn a corner. The problem is that the Seminoles make too many mistakes on offense and are not built to come from behind if things start to go south. Florida State handles its free throws well, but its 3-point percentage leaves a lot to be desired.

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Duke will Cover If: The Blue Devils can throw their weight around inside and beat the Seminole defense on the glass. Florida State might stop you on the first look, but if you can grab the rebound (not an area where the Noles excel), you can cash in on those possessions.

Florida State will Cover If: The Seminoles can find space against the Duke defense for mid-range shots. Caleb Mills and Malik Osborne are good shooters when they don’t try to force the three. If they can find ways around Banchero and Williams or force them to the bench, they have a good chance.

Dan’s Best Prop Bets

Each time Duke comes to Tallahassee, Florida State tries to slow it down and force Duke to play its game — and that part of the equation almost never works. Florida State succeeds because it’s able to score with Duke, not because it’s stopping the Blue Devils. The over should be in play here.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Both teams are playing better basketball right now, but I don’t think Florida State has enough to hold off Duke inside. The Seminoles will fight bravely to earn the cover, but I think they’ll fall a bit short. Give me Duke.