Florida State Seminoles (23-11 SU, 18-13 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (31-7 SU, 24-12 ATS) Betting Pick
Time: March 24th, 2018 3:00 PM ET
Where: Los Angeles, CA
TV: TBS
by Keith, Professional College Hoops Handicapper, Predictem
Odds
Point Spread: Michigan -5
Total Line: 143.5
In this contest, the line opened with Michigan as a four-point favorite. Since then, thanks to action on the Maize and Blue we have seen the market move by a point upward to its current station. In Over/Under markets, the line has moved upward by half of a point also to reflect wagering action on the Over. In Money Line markets, the Seminoles enter as a +170 underdog while the Wolverines are a favorite at -200.
This gridiron classic is one we normally see in a BCS bowl game or a high-profile contest of national interest. Now, the grandeur transcends to the hardwood as this pivotal match-up will transpire in the Elite Eight. The West Regional Final will pit the Florida State Seminoles against the Michigan Wolverines in a Power Conference collision within the NCAA Mens Basketball Tournament. The two teams have met twice over the span of eleven years. Michigan won the first meeting while Florida State won the second in overtime in an 82-80 thriller. The contest will take place on Saturday, March 24th, 2018 with a scheduled tip-off time of 3:00 PM ET. The match will take place in the City of Angels when the two teams take the court at the home of the Lakers and Clippers, the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. Florida State comes in off a win against perennial contender Gonzaga. Previous to this, Florida State had defeated both Missouri and the then number one seed Xavier in the second round. Michigan enters off a 99-72 win against Texas A&M in the Sweet Sixteen. Previous to this, Michigan knocked off both Houston and Montana in their first two tournament matches.
From a betting perspective, there are several trends that we have noticed. First, the Over has gone 6-2-2 ATS in Michigans last ten games. Moreover, Florida State is 4-1 ATS in their last five matches overall. To contrast this, Michigan is 10-0 SU in their previous ten contests overall. In fact, the Wolverines have won thirteen games in a row. Over this ten-game sample, Michigan is 8-2 ATS.
Florida State’s resume speaks for itself. This team has defeated a top seed in the region along with the team that played for the whole enchilada last year in back-to-back games. Florida State has played a rugged style of basketball with a chip on their shoulder. The fact this team is not known by many as a basketball threat makes them a good play with points as they have covered in four of their previous five. In their last two games alone, FSU has netted Money Line takers with over four units profit.
The talk of the whole competition has been Michigan’s physical defense. Some say they are the best in the country at playing d. With that said, Michigan has looked like a title contender, and some have been so bold to predict their rise to prominence in this tournament. Michigan is a B1G Conference Champion that has defeated some quality opposition over their current winning streak.
From a public money analysis, 63% of the cash action is on Michigan along with 85% of the ticket action. 100% of the consensus also like the Wolverines in public forums.
Buying low and selling high is a practice we champion. The stock on Michigan is at all-time highs with every win they acquire. As a result, takers can expect to pay a premium to back this team in this market. However, Florida State wont even bat an eye at the Wolverines albeit they have already rumbled with some titans in the earlier rounds. Michigan is expected to be here. Florida State has imposed its will. The difference in approach makes Michigan a risky play here especially with more points to spot.
KEITH’s PICK: Florida State +5. – Guys are you looking for a sportsbook that has the best odds on basketball games including money line and point spread lines? Check out 5Dimes for -105 style pricing on most North American sports!
