Florida State Seminoles vs. Purdue Boilermakers Predictions

by | Nov 30, 2021 | cbb

Florida State Seminoles (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 30, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Ind.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: FSU +11/PUR -11 (MyBookie - Deposit $100 and get $100 FREE added to your betting account when you use bonus code PREDICT100)

Moneyline: FSU +475/PUR -700

Total: 142.5

Last Time Out:

Florida State edged Boston University 81-80 in overtime; Purdue hammered Nebraska-Omaha 97-40.

About the Matchup:

This would have been a great matchup a year ago, but this isn’t quite the same situation as in years past. While Purdue is now a national championship contender after getting stronger in the offseason and learning the lessons of an early exit from the NCAA tournament, Florida State is floundering in the early going. The Seminoles have one loss to Florida, and beyond that, they’ve played a weak schedule and are lucky to only have that one loss on the resume.

So far, the Seminoles haven’t really shown any signs that they can score anywhere close to the level they’ll need to compete with better teams. Florida State is coming off two 80-point showings, but those were against a weak Boston University squad and a Missouri team that really can’t get stops. That’s not exactly good preparation to face the likes of Purdue, which has only been challenged by Villanova and North Carolina, two teams that expect to still be playing when the NCAA tournament gets going. Florida State doesn’t look ready for this situation, and Purdue brings a combination of one of the most intimidating environments in college basketball along with one of the most talented teams in the nation.

Scouting the Seminoles:

Offense has never been the way that Florida State wins games, but the Seminoles really haven’t been doing the job on defense to this point in the season. Florida State has a couple of fundamental problems that you don’t expect a Leonard Hamilton team to have: the Seminoles don’t rebound all that well, and they turn the ball over far too often. Close to 15 turnovers isn’t what you expect from a team that is usually well-disciplined, which is one reason why the Seminoles are struggling.

When they hold on to the ball, much of the offense is likely to come from Malik Osborne and Matthew Cleveland. Osborne has played fairly well in the interior to this point, while Cleveland is a fine mid-range shooter but isn’t connecting from beyond the perimeter. The Seminoles do have better shooters from deep, but they’re not willing to fire as often as Cleveland, which means that either Florida State needs to start taking more good shots and making them or needs to stop turning the ball over. Either strategy would be a good one.

Scouting the Boilermakers:

It’s difficult to find a weakness in the Purdue lineup. The Boilermakers shoot the ball well, they rebound it well, they spread the ball around, and they’re deep, getting regular contributions from 10 different players on a regular basis. If the Boilermakers do have a weakness, it’s that the defense leaves a little to be desired, and they sometimes play a little too fast for their own good.

Averaging 12 turnovers per game isn’t great, but Purdue has gotten away with it because it has been so successful at scoring the ball and grabbing rebounds when they don’t score. That’s what happens when you have Zach Edey manning the lane and good shooters like Jaden Ivey and Sasha Stefanovic finding holes in the defense. This team can be beaten, but it takes patience and discipline to do it.

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Florida State will Cover If:

The Seminoles can slow Purdue down and force them to work for their shots. The Boilers aren’t the greatest when they get pulled down to a slower pace, and Florida State is good enough to do it. But the Seminoles cannot shoot themselves in the foot with mistakes of their own to have a chance.

Purdue will Cover If:

The Boilers continue to own the glass like they have to this point in the season. Florida State already doesn’t shoot the ball well, and if the Seminoles have to watch as their missed shots become Purdue possessions, they’re in big trouble.

Dan’s Best Prop Bets

Purdue has been scoring almost at will to this point, and after giving up 80 to Boston University, I cannot see the Seminoles putting up enough resistance here. I like Purdue to go over its team total and get into the 80s.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Purdue is playing just fine with expectations, and I think that will repeat itself in this situation. The Boilers are an excellent team this season, while Florida State seems to be only slightly above average. I’d rather take the talent disparity on the side of the more talented side. Give me Purdue. Question: Where do you bet on games? A lot of sportsbooks are very vanilla and don’t give bettors reasons to stick around. On the other hand, there are LOTS of sportsbooks that offer sweet incentives to not only get you in the door, but to keep playing there. This comes in the form of 100% bonuses, reduced odds, free bets, free (fast) payouts and more. If you aren’t receiving perks, you should take a few minutes to make the switch to somewhere better and that appreciates your business. You can find the best the web has to offer on our best sportsbooks page. It’ll increase your perks and it also helps keep us in business so we can continue to provide you with free info. Thanks!