Warriors at Suns Predictions ATS 11/30/21

by | Nov 30, 2021 | nba

Golden State Warriors (18-2 SU, 15-4-1 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (17-3 SU, 11-9-0 ATS)

When: Tuesday, Nov. 29th, 2021, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ


Point Spread: GSW +2.5/PHX -2.5 (Opened at 2.5 at WagerWeb - Like to tease your NBA bets? You should check out the MASSIVE teasers they offer! You can move totals up to 20 points and spreads up to 18!)

Total: 220 (Opened at 220)

Money Line: GSW +120/PHX -150

Power Rating: PHX -2

Probable Starting Lineups

Golden State Warriors: PG Steph Curry, SG Jordan Poole, SF Andrew Wiggins, PF Draymond Green, C Kevon Looney

Phoenix Suns: Chris Paul, SG Devin Booker, SF Mikal Bridges, PF Jae Crowder, C Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors: F Draymond Green *Probable* (Back), C James Wiseman *Out* (Knee), G Klay Thompson *Out* (Achilles), F Andre Iguodala *Out* (Knee), G Damion Lee *Questionable* (Personal)

Phoenix Suns: F Abdel Nader *Questionable* (Knee), F Frank Kaminsky *Out* (Knee), Dario Saric *Out* (Knee)

Recent Form

The Golden State Warriors at 18-2 still hold the best record in the NBA. The Warriors enter Tuesday on a seven-game win streak and winners of nine of their last ten. The Warriors, over their last four games, have won in dominant fashion, winning by an average margin of 16.3 points. Steph Curry continues his MVP-caliber season, leading the team with 28.6 PPG and in steals per game. Draymond Green leads the team in rebounds, assists, and blocks per game, making himself worthy to be in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. The Warriors are only second to the hornets offensively, scoring 114.0 PPG. Golden State remains the best defensively, allowing just 100.4 PPG. The team’s 13.7-points differential is also the best in the NBA.

The Phoenix Suns have kept pace with the Warriors with a 17-3 record, as Tuesday’s matchup will have an early “playoff implications” feel to it. After their 1-3 start to the season, no teams have been able to down the Suns on the way to 16 straight wins. Last weekend, the Suns made the New York sweep, beating both the Knicks and Nets by comfortable margins. Devin Booker currently leads the team with 23.9 PPG. The Suns offense remains one of the best passing teams, as they are fourth in the NBA for team assists. Phoenix, along with Golden State, is one of the most well-balanced teams, averaging 112.6 PPG offensively and giving up 105.0 PPG on defense. The team’s 7.6-point differential is third in the league as well.

Western Conference Finals Preview?

Tuesday night will have all eyes in the NBA world on the heavyweight battle between the Warriors and Suns. Both teams have had nearly identical starts, though they have gotten it done on the court in different ways. For the visiting Warriors, the game plan has been simple: get the ball in Steph Curry’s hands. A mind-boggling stat, even for Curry, was that he is shooting 51.7% from three in contested shots, which is a higher percentage than wide-open looks. So essentially, wide open or not, the man is going to knock it down. While Curry’s offense has been in the spotlight of this team’s impressive run, an unsung hero who needs no introduction is Draymond Green. As everyone knows, Green isn’t a player known for high-scoring games, but he makes up for it in droves in basically every other category. Green on the year is averaging 6.6 defensive rebounds and 1.2 steals per game. This defensive effort gives the Warriors a sub-100 defensive rating, and they are currently the only team below 100. While this game is expected to be evenly matched offensively, the Warriors defense has the slight edge in this one.

Pace of Play

The pace of this game is going to be fast up and down the court, as both teams are in the top 10 for the pace of play. While Phoenix on paper is the faster team for possessions per game, the quick trigger of Curry makes it more even than the stats show. History has shown many times that in a game with two teams who are very evenly matched, the slower-paced team gets a slight nod in their favor due to getting more possessions for their offense than they typically average. Since these teams are so close that to the viewer’s eye, they won’t notice the difference, pace of play plays little part in this matchup. If there was a slight advantage to give for pace, with Golden State being the on paper “slower team”, more possessions for the Golden State offense means more buckets for Steph Curry. Advantage Warriors.

Golden State Makes a Statement

When a game like this presents itself where the NBA’s top two teams face each other, the spread is going to be small. Phoenix is favored in this one by just 2.5-points, which tells you if this game was in Golden State, we’d more than likely see the same spread in their favor. When the spread is this close, I’m looking at who has been able to consistently cover to this point of the season. The Warriors have covered the spread in 15 of their 20 games, while Phoenix has covered 11 of their 20 games. Looking just at the last four games as well, the Suns are 2-2 ATS with an average win margin of nine points. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS with an average win margin of 16.3. Advantage Warriors.

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The Historicals

Tuesday’s game will be the first time these teams meet this season. Looking at last year, the Suns won two of the three matchups. Golden State did win the most recent game in May, which was a 122-116 final.

How the Public is Betting the Warriors vs. Suns

63% are betting the Warriors against the spread.

72% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 220.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Golden State Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
  • The Golden State Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their previous four road games.
  • The Phoenix Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.
  • The Phoenix Suns are 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games vs. teams with a record above .600%.
  • The Under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last five games as a road underdog.
  • The Under is 7-2 in the Warriors’ previous nine games.
  • The Over is 5-0 in the Suns’ last 5 games as a favorite.
  • The Over is 5-1 in the Suns’ previous six games.
  • The Under is 8-1 in these teams’ last nine matchups.

Collin’s Pick Against the Spread

Despite being still early in the season, this game is going to have a playoff feel to it. Phoenix, despite their 16-game win streak, has had closer games as of late than they’d like. Given the Warriors ability to cover double-digit spreads consistently this season, I like the Warriors chances in this one to beat the spread as the underdog. Take the Golden State Warriors to beat the 2.5-point spread. Question: Are you still laying -110 odds on your NBA wagers? If so, you SERIOUSLY need to take 5 minutes and switch to -105 odds! It’ll save you THOUSANDS of dollars in unnecessary risk! Find this beautiful offering at BetAnySports Sportsbook!