Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Pick

Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 13
Date/Time: Thursday December 2nd, 2021. 8:20PM (EST)
Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans, LA
TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Following a disappointing overtime loss to the Raiders last week on Thanksgiving Day, the Dallas Cowboys return to the Thursday Night stage when they take a road trip to the Caesars Superdome to battle the New Orleans Saints. On the heels of losses in 3 of the last 4 games, the Cowboys lead in the dismal NFC East has dwindled to just two games and Dallas desperately needs to turn the momentum around against a Saints team that has been plagued with injuries while riding a 4 game losing streak. As a result, the Cowboys will be 6 point favorites when they visit the Superdome on Thursday as America’s Team looks to get back on track.

Like the Cowboys, the Saints also suffered a recent loss on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans was trampled by the Bills in a 31-6 thrashing last Thursday night marking the lowest offensive output by the Saints’ offense this season. Earlier this year, the Saints lost starting QB Jameis Winston to a season-ending ACL injury. Winston was already a significant step-down from long time Saints veteran Drew Brees and the Saints are now in a rare predicament with their season on the shoulders of a backup quarterback in the form of Trevor Siemian. In all fairness to Siemian, he has had little help in recent weeks. Star running back Alvin Kamara has been sidelined for weeks with a knee injury and the Saints receiving corps is already sans Michael Thomas. Needless to say, the offense has been lacking playmakers. Luckily, the Saints expect Kamara and RB Mark Ingram to return for this Thursday’s showdown against Dallas which should shed some optimism on the offensive side of the football.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends

• The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games
• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road
• The Cowboys have hit the “under” in 4 of the last 5 games
• The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games at New Orleans
• The Saints are 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
• The Saints are 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games at home
• The Saints have hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games
• The Saints are 6-1 SU in the last 7 games against Dallas in New Orleans

Dallas expected to rest RB Ezekiel Elliott

While the Saints’ expect their star running back to return on Thursday, the Dallas Cowboys could be headed in the opposite direction with star running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott has been battling a lingering knee issue for weeks and the injury has been very obvious to those that watch the Cowboys closely. The lingering issue has reportedly reached a decision point with the Cowboys coaching staff who will likely try to rest Elliott in hopes that he is healthy for the latter part of the season. In reality, it would be the right move for the Cowboys to make as their playoff chances look very promising and there is no reason to continue to run Elliott into the ground if he could be healthy during the home stretch. Additionally, I would stress that backup running back Tony Pollard has looked great in his limited/split role in the Cowboys backfield. Therefore, Dallas can likely rest Elliott and not have to worry about sacrificing any losses if Pollard continues to produce.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

While I truly believe the Cowboys are a really good football team, the truth is that the defense is not nearly as good as the public believes. The Cowboys’ defense got some early-season confidence due to the forced turnovers mainly from CB Trevon Diggs. However, the defense is still giving up 369 yards per game which ranks 24th in the NFL. Last week, we saw the Cowboys struggled against an underperforming Raiders offense and featured Derek Carr passing for nearly 400 yards. While I don’t expect Trevor Siemian to replicate that performance, I do expect Head Coach Sean Payton to draw-up opportunities against the Dallas secondary and will likely do so by heavily involving Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in the run and passing game. If both runners have success which I believe they will, it will create opportunities down the field if Siemian can deliver.

Ultimately, I am far from trusting the Dallas defense but Siemian is also far from an elite or perhaps average NFL quarterback. Turnovers could be a big factor in this game and Dallas has done a great job of capitalizing on opponents mistakes. Even if the turnovers are not there, I expect the Dallas offense to attack New Orleans with a heavy passing attack led by Dak Prescott. With Elliott on the shelf, the Cowboys can go to a pass-heavy attack with a running back (Pollard) that is great in the passing game. The Saints’ surprisingly rank in the bottom half of the league against the pass allowing 251 yards per game. With both of the Cowboys top two receivers returning in Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion), this is a vintage rebound spot for one of the NFL’s most potent offenses.

Jay’s Pick: I would lean towards the Cowboys -6 but the defense continues to scare me. Instead, I believe the over 47.5 is the optimal play here as both offenses will be in attack mode for a full 60 minutes.