Grambling State Tigers at Texas Longhorns
Monday, November 9, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Moody Center
No. 7 Texas is a 35.5-point favorite over Grambling State with a total of 152.5, and my play is a lean on Grambling +35.5.
Grambling coach Patrick Crarey scheduled trips to Duke, Kentucky and Austin this year, and back in October he picked the scariest one. “Texas might be the best team out of the three,” he told the Ruston Daily Leader. He’s not wrong. The question here isn’t who wins. It’s whether 35.5 is the right tax.
Texas has been terrifying. Sean Miller’s group opened with a 109-59 win over Chicago State and followed it with a 98-50 beatdown of Gardner-Webb. According to Texas’ game notes, it’s the first time since 1989-90 that the Longhorns opened a season with back-to-back wins of 45 or more. The defense has been the real show: opponents are scoring 54.5 points a night on 36.8% shooting, and Texas has forced 38 turnovers in two games. Gardner-Webb coughed it up 23 times, and Texas turned those into 31 points.
The roster is new, with 11 newcomers, but it’s loaded. Seven-footer Matas Vokietaitis has made 15 of his 17 shots. Freshman Marcus Spears Jr., who reclassified to start college at 17, blocks everything in the area code. Joe Sterling has already hit seven threes. And Texas is doing all of this without guard Mikey Lewis, who had foot surgery and isn’t expected back until mid-to-late December.
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So why take the points? Because the efficiency numbers say this line is a little stretched. Bart Torvik’s ratings, which still lean on preseason expectations this early, have Texas 17th nationally with the 10th-best offense and 25th-best defense. Grambling sits 327th. Run those numbers at roughly 70 possessions, add home court, and you land somewhere in the high 20s, not the mid-30s. The market seems to feel it too: this line opened at 37.5 and has already come down two points.
Grambling also isn’t a team that’s just showing up for a check. The Tigers beat Northern Illinois 89-87 in their opener, and forward Isaiah Miranda went for 29 points on 10-of-12 shooting with eight boards and three blocks. Dwayne Pierce added 19 points and eight assists. Grambling has also had a full week off since that game, while Texas has already gone deep into its bench in both blowouts. Once this one gets out of hand, Miller has no reason to keep his starters out there hunting a 40-point margin.
The case against me. Texas beat Chicago State by 50, and Torvik rates Chicago State about the same as Grambling. A defense that pressures like this one can turn a 20-point lead into 40 in eight minutes, and the Tigers only bring back two players from a team that went 14-19, so they could be overwhelmed. Grambling was picked eighth in the SWAC preseason poll, and an 89-point opener against Northern Illinois says more about pace than defense. This is a lean, not a hammer. The edge is about the size of the number, not a matchup I love.
Projected score: Texas 91, Grambling State 60
The Pick: Grambling State +35.5
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