Long Beach St. 49ers (4-3 4-2 ATS) vs. No. 2 Texas Longhorns (6-0 5-1 ATS) Frank Erwin Special Events Center, Austin, TX 9 PM EST Monday December 7, 2009 on ESPNU
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Betting Odds: 49ers +12.5 / Longhorns -12.5
Over/Under: 144
Tonight the 2nd ranked Texas Longhorns host the Long Beach St. 49ers. While the Texas University is riled up because the football team will play in the BCS title game in football their basketball team also has a legit chance to win the National Championship as well. The 49ers are a decent team and they were picked by many experts to win the Big West this season.
Even though Long Beach St. is only 1 game over .500 and does not play in a strong conference they will not be intimidated in this game, as they have already played 2 ranked teams, Clemson and West Virginia, as well as Notre Dame. However, the 49ers did not win any of those games and the closest one was an 8-point loss to Clemson.
The 49ers will have their hands full tonight, as they have to find a way to score on a stingy Texas defense that is only giving up an average of 52.3 ppg and play solid D on the Texas lineup that has a couple, at least, future NBA players. Texas has also beaten all 6 of their opponents this season by at least 10 points.
This season the Longhorns are 3-0 at home and the 49ers are 2-1 on the road.
In their last game on Thursday the Longhorns crushed the USC Trojans 69-50. The Longhorns really showed how dominant their defense can be in the game, as the Trojans only shot 30.4% from the floor and they committed 17 turnovers. The Longhorns did not play a great game on offense, as they only shot 41.4% from the floor, 18.2% from beyond the 3-point arc, and their struggled from the charity stripe continued only shooting a FT% of 55.9%. The Longhorns were favored by 21 points in the game so they did not cover the spread.
The 49ers have had a long break, as they have not played since November 29th when they beat UCLA 79-68. In that game the 49ers outscored UCLA by 10 points in the 2nd half to win by 11. The 49ers were on fire in the game, as they shot 53.6% from the floor and 50% from 3-point land. They also dominated the boards out-rebounding UCLA by 10 boards. The 49ers were underdogs by 3.5 points so they covered the spread.
The big gun for the 49ers is 6″7″ F T.J. Robinson (16.4 ppg 10 rpg), but he will have a hard time putting up those numbers tonight since the Longhorns have a legit C in 6’10” Dexter Pittman (14.8 ppg 6 rpg) and he will probably be matched up with G/F Damion James (16 ppg 10 rpg).
James is shooting 41.2% from downtown this season and since he is 6’7″ he will bury some tonight from beyond the 3-point arc.
The 49ers have a legit backcourt with 3 guards averaging in double figures, but they will be facing a Texas backcourt, which is one of the best defensive units in the nation, so don’t look for LBSU to shoot well tonight.
The Longhorns should dominated the boards tonight, as Pittman and Jones will only face 2 legit rebounders in the 49ers Eugene Phelps (9.7 rpg) and Robinson (10 rpg), but they are only 6’7″ and 6’6″ respectively.
The Longhorns are one of the most athletic teams in the nation, so they should have no problem scoring tonight. Add to the fact that the 49ers do not have a good defense giving up an average of 73.4 ppg.
Texas has beaten their opponents by an average of 26.2 points per game this season.
Jason’s Pick: The Longhorns simply have too much size and athleticism for the 49ers to handle. James will have a big scoring game and Pittman will get a lot of boards tonight, as the Longhorns will easily win this home game and cover the 12.5 point spread.
