Toledo vs. Ball State: Betting Preview and Picks

by | Last updated Mar 3, 2023 | cbb

Toledo (24-6 SU 17-12 ATS) vs. Ball State (20-10 SU 15-13 ATS)
When: Friday, March 3rd: 6:00 ET
Where: Worthen Arena Muncie, IN
Point Spread: U of T -3.5/BSU +3.5
Total: 158.0
Money Line: Toledo Rockets -176/Ball State Cardinals +142

Toledo (24-6 SU 17-12 ATS) will take on Ball State (20-10 SU 15-13 ATS) on March 3, 2023, at Worthen Arena in Muncie, IN. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 PM ET and will be broadcast on CBSS.
The point spread for this game is Toledo -3.5/BSU +3.5, with the total set at 158.0. The money line odds currently favor the Toledo Rockets at -176, while the Ball State Cardinals are the underdogs at +142.

Line Movement

The Toledo Rockets openen as a -2.5 road favorite and have risen to -3.5/-4, bucking the public action. The total hit the board at 159 and has dropped a notch to 158.5.

Last Game Info

Toledo picked up a victory over Central Michigan by a score of 99-65. Heading into the game, the Rockets were favored to win, with a point spread of -15. The combined 164 points finished above the 146 total line.

Ball State lost to Akron in their last game by a score of 87-83. But because the Cardinals were +9.5 point underdogs, they finished with an ATS win. The combined 170 points finished above the 139 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Toledo has a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Rockets’ offense averages 92.8 points per game while hitting 54.2% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 46.2% from the field while allowing 71.2 points per contest.

Ball State
In their previous five contests, Ball State is 2-3 straight-up and 2-3 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 77.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.6%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 44.1% of their shots while giving up 77.4 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Toledo’s opponents comes in at 74.8. On the other side, Ball State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 72.9.

How Does Toledo Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Rockets have played 15 road games and have a record of 10-5. In these contests, Toledo is 7-8 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 80.7 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.6%. On defense, the Rockets are allowing 76.7 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 46.2% in these games.

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How Does Ball State Fare At Home?

In their 14 games at home, Ball State has a 5-7 record vs. the spread while going 12-2 straight-up. On offense, the Cardinals are shooting 48.8% on their home floor, leading to 79.9 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 42.0% in these contests. The Ball State defense is allowing 69.2 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Toledo is averaging 80.7 points per game (11th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 48.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Ball State defense that has allowed an average of 70.5 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 43.3% of their shots vs. Ball State. Conversely, the Ball State Cardinals are coming into the game averaging 74.3 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.7%. The Cardinals will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 75.9 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 44.3% of their shots vs. the Rockets.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Toledo has a shooting percentage of 36.0% while ranking 516th in attempts per game. The Rockets will be facing a Ball State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 35.6%. Ball State enters the game having hit 35.7% of their looks from deep while averaging 9.0 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Toledo has allowed opponents to hit 34.7% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • No Reported Injuries

Ball State

  • No Reported Injuries

Pick Against The Spread

The Cards have had an easy schedule in the later part of the season, playing the toughest teams at the beginning of conference play, so it’s difficult to accurately access their current level of play. They have lost three of their last four, but all three losses were on the road, and they easily dispatched Kent State in a revenge game on their home court. Ball State did beat Toledo 90-83 in their earlier match-up handing the Rockets their only home loss. However, the Cardinals were on fire in that game, sinking 11 of 22 three-point attempts and out boarded them 42-21! I just don’t see them doing that again. I’m going anti-public and laying the small number on the Rockets. Take Toledo -3.5