ACC ATS Pick: Louisville vs. Miami Predictions

by | Last updated Nov 15, 2023 | cfb

Louisville Cardinals (9-1 SU, ATS 4-5) vs Miami Hurricanes (6-4 SU, ATS 4-3)

Date: Saturday, November 18th

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL


Point Spread: Lou -2/Mia +2

Money Line: Cards -121/Canes -101

Over/Under: 47.5 (Did you know… You can move college football lines up to 20 points using a massive CFB teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook?)

The Louisville Cardinals and Miami Hurricanes matchup in an Atlantic Coast showdown at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 47.5, while Louisville is favored by -2.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, Louisville and Miami did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, Miami has the leg up at 3-0. The over/under record in these games was 1-2, with the teams averaging 47 points per game combined. Miami went 2-1 vs. the spread.

Louisville Cardinals Recent Form:

Louisville’s record has improved to 9-1 following their 31-24 win against Virginia as they prepare for this week’s showdown with Miami.

On the point spread, Louisville was favored by 20.5 going into the game, giving them an ATs loss. On the over/uner the combined 55 points surpassed the pre-game betting line of 50.5 points.

In the win to Virginia, quarterback Jack Plummer concluded with a QB rating of 103.72 while connecting on 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards. Moreover, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Louisville’s leading rusher against Virginia was Jawhar Jordan, who ran for 95 yards on 17 times. Jawhar Jordan did not run for a score against Virginia. Ahmari Huggins-Bruce had a stellar performance as the team’s top receiver, scoring one touchdown and making one reception for 52 yards.

On defense, Louisville finished their game against Virginia by giving up a total of 439 yards. Virginia threw the ball 32 times for 314 vs. Louisville. While on the ground, the Cardinals gave up 125 rushing yards. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed 94.2 rushing yards per game this season, ranking 195th. Opponents are averaging 208.2 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 70.6 against Louisville. They currently rank 91st in points allowed in the NCAA.

Away Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
M.J. Griffin DB Leg Out
Renato Brown OL Undisclosed Out
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. DB Undisclosed Questionable

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Miami Hurricanes Recent Form:

Miami’s recent loss to Florida State brought their overall record down to 6-4. In the game, the Hurricanes suffered a 27-20 defeat.

Going into the game, Miami was a 14-point underdog and despite the straight-up loss, they did cover the spread. The team’s combined 47 points was not enough to surpass the over/under line of 50.5.

In the loss vs. Florida State, quarterback Emory Williams concluded with a QB rating of 91.76, connecting on 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards. He also added two touchdowns to his performance.

Despite carrying the ball 12 times against Florida State, Donald Chaney Jr. was unable to score a rushing touchdown and finished with 85 yards in the game for Miami. Jacolby George paced Miami with his five receptions for 153 yards and two touchdowns.

The Hurricanes’ defense finished the game by giving up 324 total yards to Florida State. The team’s run defense allowed 59 yards rushing compared to 265 in the passing game. Looking at this week’s game, the Miami defense stands at 76th in points allowed, permitting 20.7 points on average per game. So far, opposing teams have managed 226.5 passing yards per game against them (90th). On the ground, they’re conceding 86.3 rushing yards, ranking them 11th in college football.

Home Injury Report

FullName Position InjuryBodyPart InjuryStatus
Henry Parrish Jr. RB Undisclosed Probable
Elijah Arroyo TE Undisclosed Questionable
Nyjalik Kelly DL Undisclosed Out
Ajay Allen RB Undisclosed Probable
Trevonte’ Citizen RB Knee Out
Samson Okunlola OL Lower Body Out
Emory Williams QB Arm Out
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Betting Trends

  • Looking at Louisville’s five most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 0-5.
  • Looking across Miami’s five most recent home games, they are 2-3 against the spread.
  • Hurricanes is 3-2 in their last five games as underdogs.
  • Looking back on the last five times Louisville was favored, their ATS record was 2-3.

Free Pick

Even though Miami fell to Florida State last week, I like them in this spot as 2-point home underdogs. Despite their 9-1 straight-up record, the Cardinals are just 4-5 vs. the spread this season. My pick is to take the Hurricanes at +2.

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1