Air Force Falcons (5-2 SU 2-5 ATS) vs. No. 5 TCU Horned Frogs (7-0 SU 3-4 ATS) Week 8 NCAA Football, Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth TX, 8 PM EST Saturday October 23,2010
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: AF +18.5/Texas Christian -18.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5
In a Mountain West Conference match up this Saturday night the Air Force Falcons head to Texas to take on the undefeated and 5th ranked TCU Horned Frogs. TCU has not lost at home since the 2007 season and that streak will likely continue even though Air Force has the top-ranked rushing offense in the nation.
The Falcons were ranked before they were upset last week losing to San Diego State and that loss may have hurt TCU more, as a win over a ranked team on their resume would have looked good for BCS voters.
Last week TCU kept their undefeated season alive with an easy 31-3 win over BYU.
While Air Force is the best in the nation racking up an average of 346.9 rushing yards per game TCU is no slouch running ball ranking 10th in the nation with 255.4 rushing yards per game. However, unlike Air Force TCU is not one-dimensional on offense ranking 64th in passing yards per game while the Falcons only rank 115th out of 120 FBS teams.
Horned Frogs’ QB Andy Dalton has thrown for over 265 yards in 3 games this season including his last 2 and in those last 2 games he has 7 TD and 0 INT. Even though he is a legit QB he will not put up big numbers in this game, as he will not have to. Air Force has a good pass D, but their rushing D only ranks 91st in the nation and TCU will run the ball all game long. This game will be like TCU’s game against Colorado State a couple weeks back, as CSU has a terrible run defense and a decent pass defense, like Air Force, and in that game Dalton only had 109 yards passing, but TCU won 27-0 because they rushed for 346 yards.
RB Ed Wesley, who has 665 yards and 7 TD and is averaging just under 7 yards per carry, leads TCU’s ground game. He and fellow RB Matthew Tucker (387 yards 5 TD) will get a heavy workload in this game and gain a ton of yards on the ground against an Air Force defense that gave up 205 rushing yards last week to San Diego State.
Air Force uses a triple option attack with 3 players that rank in the top 100 in the nation in rushing yards per game. They are led by the RB duo of Asher Clark (664 yards 3 TD) and Jared Tew (540 yards 3 TD) and QB Tim Jefferson (464 yards 7 TD). The Falcons lit up SDSU for 312 rushing yards, but they still lost the game. Jefferson had to throw 30 passes in the game, which was more than double his season high since the Falcons were down. Unlike Air Force TCU has a solid rushing defense ranked 9th in the nation. They will not totally shut down the Air Force rushing offense, but they will not let them get near their season average. Jefferson will have to air it out more like he did last week, but he will not be successful facing TCU and their 2nd ranked pass defense.
Don’t forget to check out our Week 7 pro football picks with analysis!
Air Force is only 2-5 ATS on the season, has not covered the spread in any of their last 4 games, and is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
TCU has not been the best bet at 3-4 ATS this season, but when they are heavily favored at home, like they are in this game, they have been a solid betting pick at 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: In last season’s match up between these 2 teams the Horned Frogs used a well-balanced attack to win the game. They will do that this Saturday and their rushing offense will be the key, as the Falcons will not be able to stop TCU from dominating the ground attack. In the last 3 weeks TCU has blown out their opponent that streak will run to 4 this Saturday, as they will easily win this game and cover the 18.5-point spread.
