Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia Bulldogs Week 3 Pick

by | Sep 10, 2019 | cfb

Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, September 14th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Sanford Stadium – Athens, GA

Point Spread: ARK STATE +33.5 / DAWGS -33.5 (WagerWeb)
Total: Off

Power Ratings: N/A

Takeaways From Week Two

The Red Wolves come into this contest off the heels of a 43-17 rout of the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas, last Saturday. The Wolves rebounded after suffering a 37-30 defeat in their home opener against SMU in the week previous. Arkansas State was easy money in their win as they closed as just a one-point favorite.

The Bulldogs come in off yet another impressive result when they laid waste to the visiting Murray State Racers on Saturday in a 63-17 blow-out. Closing as a 48.5-point favorite, the Dawgs were unable to cover, but that was the last thing on the UGA agenda. A litany of back-ups and reserves saw extensive playing time against Murray State which was a chief aim of Head Coach Kirby Smart should the Bulldogs get the game under control which they did by half-time.

How the Public is Betting The Georgia-Arkansas State Game

64% of the consensus like the Dawgs here as the heavy favorite and as a result, we have seen the market begin to move upward by half of a point from UGA opening as 33-point chalk.

The Historicals

Georgia and Arkansas State have met on two occasions dating back to 1997. The Bulldog Nation won both meetings but were priced as a 34-point favorite in both scenarios. In each of these contests, the Red Wolves came in under the number.

Injury Concerns

The most recent injury concern for the Dawgs lies with Right Tackle Isaiah Wilson will be unavailable due to a lower-body injury sustained in practice late last week. Veterans Cade Mays and Jamaree Salyer will see an uptick in playing time in Wilson’s absence.

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Betting Trends

If there are any Over/Under players out there, this trend plays into your wheelhouse. The Under is 4-0 ATS in the previous four Arkansas State fixtures.

Why We Like The Dawgs To Cover

When I looked at this line, it seems to me that the lines makers have thrown at a number that mirrors what has been historically profitable and went from there. We could easily see this figure land on the Dawgs spotting 34, and I am not one for believing that will be the right one for the third time in a row. The Bulldogs will pretty much copy and paste what they did against Murray State here with Arkansas State and purvey a similar result. The Dawgs will implement a steady dose of the run and let Quarterback Jake Fromm throw off that to a variety of emerging weapons, including transfer Tight End Eli Wolf, former five-star wide-out Demetris Robertson, and Freshman stand-out Wide Receiver George Pickens who had an acrobatic catch and his first career reception touchdown against Murray State. I could see the game flow being congruent to what we saw last week with Fromm and company being pulled after half-time to allow the second-stringers to get more game experience as Notre Dame comes to town next Saturday. Initially, I was flirting with the idea of taking the points because of this. However, the Bulldogs’ depth is as deep as the Mariana Trench. The talent in the second tier could also have their way against Arkansas State as it did against Murray State. Lest we forget, seven of the 17 points came on a pick-six returned the other way by the Racers on a Stetson Bennett pass attempt. UGA only gave up one touchdown, and that was in the first quarter. After that, the Dawgs clamped down. Had the pick-six never happened, the Dawgs would have covered.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -33

I can easily see many fading the Dawgs here by virtue of the “look-ahead” angle, embellished by the fact that this contest is against a weaker opponent on paper. I am pretty sure some will tout the Red Wolves and say that the Bulldogs will take the Sun Belt Conference contender lightly and thus Arkansas State is the smarter play. I am not one of those people. Coach Kirby Smart has made it evident that his team respects all who they play and emphasizes discipline and execution. The fact remains that the Bulldogs have committed a lot of miscues and mistakes in their first two games this season. They have yet to play a “complete” game, despite making it look the opposite. The Dawgs will get their act together against the Red Wolves and build on that foundation as they head into their prime-time clash with the Fighting Irish in Week 4. Like the previous opponents that have faced this ferocious Bulldog defense, I see Arkansas State struggling mightily in moving the ball and scoring. This is especially bad news for the Red Wolves as the offense is their hallmark. I have the Dawgs winning this one somewhere in the neighborhood of 48-13 which is enough for us to green-up laying the points and taking advantage of 5Dimes reduced juice