Army Black Knights vs Air Force Falcons Betting Odds, Trends, Free Picks

by | Nov 1, 2022 | cfb

Army Black Knights (3-4 SU, ATS 2-4) vs Air Force Falcons (5-3 SU, ATS 4-4)
Date: Saturday, November 5th
Location: Globe Life Park in Arlington, Arlington, TX
TV: CBS
Point Spread: Black Knights +7/Falcons -7
Money Line: Black Knights +220/Falcons -277
Over/Under: 38.5

RECENT FORM

This season, the Black Knights have an overall record of 3-4 and have yet to play a game in
the FBS Independents. This season, the Black Knights have been favored in 3 games while posting
an ATS mark of 2-4. Their average over-under betting line is 48.14 leading to an over-under
record of 4-2.

In their last game, the Black Knights are coming off a 48-24 win over UL Monroe. In addition,
they added an ATS win, as they were 6.5 favorites on the spread. For the game, the Army threw for
41 yards but did not come up with a passing touchdown. Their overall completion percentage came
in at 50.0%. The team ended the game with 6 rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 441 yards
on the ground.

So far, quarterback Cade Ballard has a passer rating of 80.06 while completing 18 of his 35
attempts. Currently, he has a total of 335 passing yards. Isaiah Alston leads the team’s
receiving corps with 12 catches for a total of 204 yards. The Black Knights have turned to
running back Tyrell Robinson a total of 38 times for a total of 321 rushing yards.

This season, the Falcons have a 2-3 record in conference action, with an overall mark of 5-3.
This season, the Falcons have an ATS mark of 4-4-0 while being favored in every game. Their
over-under record sits at 4-4-0 on an average point total betting line of 47.31.

In their previous game, the Falcons fell to Boise State on the road by a score of 19-14. Air
Force also picked up an ATS loss, as they were 2.0-point favorites entering the game. For the
game, the Air Force threw for 96 yards but did not come up with a passing touchdown. Their
overall completion percentage came in at 44.4%. The team ended the game with 2 rushing
touchdowns, along with a total of 175 yards on the ground.

The team’s leading quarterback is Haaziq Daniels, who comes into the game with a passer rating
of 105.81 on a completion percentage of 47.4%. David Cormier leads the team’s receiving corps
with 7 catches for a total of 248 yards. The top option in the run game for the team is Brad
Roberts, who has carried the ball 174 times for a total of 943 yards.

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BETTING TRENDS

Against the spread, the Black Knights have gone 3-7-0 over their last 10 games. Straight up
they have a record of 5-5-0. The team averaged 29.7 points in these games while allowing 26.1.
Their over-under record was 5-5-0.

When looking at their past 5 road matchups, Army has an ATS record of 2-3-0 while averaging
20.6 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.

Against the spread, Air Force have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games. Over this same period,
their straight up record is 7-3. On offense, the team averaged 32.6 points per game while
allowing 17.6. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 6-4-0.

In their last 5 home games, Air Force has averaged 32.8 points per game while allowing 15.2.
The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 3-2.

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KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into the game, the Black Knights are ranked 42nd in points per game and will be tested
against an Air Force defense allowing just 16.75 points per game. If the Black Knights are going
to find success, they will need to continue to perform well on third downs, as they are
converting at a rate of 50.0%.

Although the Black Knights have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this
season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs an Air Force defense allowing
teams to complete passes at a rate of 70.32%.

So far, Army has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 3rd in attempts per game,
with an average of 55.57. This heavy usage has led to an average of 334.57 rush yards per game,
placing them 2nd in the NCAA. This week, the Black Knights will be facing an Air Force defense
that is ranked 48th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 413.0 yards per
game when facing top 25 rush defenses.

Heading into the game, the Black Knights will hope for some improved play from their defense,
as they are currently 92nd at 29.43 points per game allowed.

On the other side, the Falcons will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked
just 59th in the NCAA in points scored.

In order for the Falcons to find success on offense this week, they will look to continue
their trend of establishing the run. However, they will need to be on top of their game vs one of
the NCAA’s top-scoring defenses.

This week, Air Force may look to throw the ball more than they have, as they are below the
NCAA average in pass attempts per game but rank well in yards per completion. In addition, they
should have plenty of time to work the ball down the field, with Army ranking just 125th in sacks
per contest.

So far, Air Force has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 2nd in attempts per
game, with an average of 59.38. This heavy usage has led to an average of 336.75 rush yards per
game, placing them 1st in the NCAA. This week, the Falcons will be facing an Army defense that is
ranked 182nd in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 386.5 yards per game when
facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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