Army vs. Navy Odds & Predictions 12/11/21

by | Dec 6, 2021 | cfb

Army Black Knights (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Navy Midshipmen (3-8 SU, 7-4 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 11, 3 p.m.

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: ARMY -7.5/NAVY +7.5 (MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a special 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300!)

Total: O/U 35.5

Outlook

It’s America’s Game as well as the final college football regular-season game of 2021, and it’s going to serve as Navy’s bowl game after the Midshipmen didn’t come anywhere close to being bowl eligible this season. On the other hand, Army has a bowl to prepare for after this one and looks to keep its recent run of success against the Mids going. The Black Knights have won four of five in this series and have claimed three of the past four Commander in Chief’s trophies and can complete a sweep of Navy and Air Force for the fourth time in five seasons with a win.
Based on records, this game shouldn’t be all that close. But Navy has outplayed its record this season, and these games usually don’t end in blowouts. Last year’s 15-0 win for the Black Knights is about as bad as a result as it gets between two teams that love to run the ball and don’t put an emphasis on scoring a lot of points. Based on how Navy has played for the past month and how the Mids have nothing after this, this one might be closer than people expect.

How the Public is Betting the Army/Navy Game

The public has caught on to the idea that these are low-scoring, tight games, as they’ve pushed the number down from -8 to -7.5. The total has also ticked down a point, falling from 36.5 to 35.5.

Injury Concerns

Army:
Running back Anthony Adkins (undisclosed) is questionable.

Navy:
Safety Mitchell West (leg) is out.

When Army Has the Ball

This is triple-option football at its finest, and Army doesn’t really care who it puts out there at quarterback between Christian Anderson and Tyhier Tyler unless the Black Knights are throwing one of their rare passes. Tyler doesn’t even bother to try to pass, but Anderson will attempt to pass occasionally, as he’s thrown for 545 yards on the season. Beyond that, Army will keep the ball on the ground roughly 85 percent of the time, usually opting for Jakobi Buchanan or Tyrell Robinson to carry the ball. Robinson has done a great job of getting big yardage when he gets the ball, rushing for 582 yards on 59 carries for the year.

When Army does pass, it’s going to be either Robinson out of the backfield or Isaiah Alston on the rare occasions when Army does pass to a wide receiver. Other than Alson, no Army wide receiver has more than 40 receiving yards on the season, as the Black Knights use their receivers almost exclusively to block.

When Navy Has the Ball

Here’s one big reason why the number is so low in this one: Navy doesn’t really have any one running back that it can count on to rip off big yardage. Isaac Ruoss is the best option the Mids have, but he only averages 3.9 yards per carry and has scored just five touchdowns on the season.
The Mids don’t even bother pretending to try to pass, as they rank dead last in the nation in passing yards with just 54.5 yards per game through the air. There are quarterbacks who have thrown for more yards in one game than Tai Lavatai has all season, as he has thrown for just 367 yards for the year. He’s rushed for 309, but he’s the fourth option on a team with several players who can run the ball. The Mids rank seventh in the nation in rushing yards, but that’s because they’ll gradually move the ball with several different backs and get the job done in that manner.

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Betting Trends

As is usually the case for service academy games, points are expected to be at a premium. Not only do Army and Navy both run the triple option, but the fact that the game will be played in New Jersey in December almost always also contributes to low-scoring games that make under bettors very happy. The total in this one might seem absurdly low until you realize that Army-Navy hasn’t topped 38 points since 2013.
Last year’s game was classic Army football, as the Black Knights emerged with a 15-0 victory over the Mids. But that’s also the only time that Army’s won a game that could be considered a blowout over Navy in the past two decades: taking Navy +8 would have made you a winner in 28 of the last 30 matchups between Army and Navy.

Weather Report

If the points don’t come in the first half, they’re not going to. The game should start in comfortable temperatures for December, but up to two-thirds of an inch of rain is coming in the evening, and if the storm arrives early, it’s going to be virtually impossible for these teams to get much of any kind of footing.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

I don’t expect a blowout here. Navy has been playing a lot better in the second half of the season, and Army has a habit of letting less talented teams hang around with them throughout the game. Throw in that Army doesn’t blow out Navy when it does win, and this looks like the points are the play. I’ll take the Mids. Question: Did you know that you could be wagering on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the past year(s). The figure is staggering! Quit wasting your hard earned money TODAY by making the switch to -105 odds at BetAnySports!