Auburn vs. LSU Pick 10/26/19

by | Oct 21, 2019 | cfb

No. 9 Auburn Tigers (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. No. 2 LSU Tigers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday October 26th, 2019. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, L.A.

Point Spread:AUB +12/LSU -12 (BetNow)
Over/Under Total: TBA

This weekend’s marquee game on the college gridiron will take place in Baton Rouge when the no. 2 LSU Tigers welcome no. 9 Auburn into Death Valley. Despite a loss to Florida two weeks ago, Auburn still has ambitions for an SEC Championship and perhaps an appearance in the College Football Playoffs if they can run the table. Likewise, LSU has similar aspirations with an undefeated record, including two significant victories already against top 10 opponents. The Bayou Bengals appear to be Alabama’s biggest challenge in the division if they can keep the momentum alive. LSU will enter this Saturday’s homestand at Tiger Stadium as 12 point favorites over Gus Malzahn’s Tigers and will look to keep their dominant season intact.

Betting streaks collide in Baton Rouge

When you consider the breakdown between each team in this game, strong arguments could be made for either side, especially for bettors. Gus Malzahn’s Auburn team is stretching the field with the run game and playing sound defense to exceed expectations. Auburn has amassed an impressive 6-1 record ATS this season, with the only failed cover occurring in the road loss to Florida. While Auburn continues to be one of the strongest betting teams in the country in 2019, LSU has become one of the best betting teams consistently under Head Coach Ed Orgeron.

The 2nd ranked Tigers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last eight games. LSU has dominated on both sides of the ball with the emergence of QB Joe Burrow and with a defense that exudes NFL caliber talent. The Tigers have shown the ability to avoid letdown performances and continually provide value for bettors. In fact, LSU currently is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against SEC foes, which is largely considered the toughest conference and division in college football. When you consider the history of this rivalry has heavily favored LSU especially at home in Baton Rouge where they have won the last nine meetings over Auburn; the current betting line of 12 points is another manageable number that LSU could easily eclipse.

Match-up breakdown favors LSU

This is a rather tricky match-up because both offenses are able to do certain things really well. Auburn’s offense does a great job of getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers in space through a dynamic rushing attack. LSU also puts a heavy focus on the ground attack. Unlike Auburn’s option-read style running approach, LSU is more traditional in their run-heavy approach behind running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has racked up 547 yards with seven touchdowns. Both offenses also do a great job of protecting the ball, sometimes through conservative play-calling, because of the faith both teams have in their defenses.

Still when I breakdown this match-up, I still believe all signs point to LSU. Auburn will have success in the running game, but I don’t think it will be enough. The visiting Tigers lost star running back JaTarvious Whitlow a few weeks ago, which was a big blow to the offense. Running back Kam Martin has been solid against inferior competition, but can he be “the guy” against a talented LSU defense. If Auburn has trouble running the football, they could be in huge trouble. Quarterback Bo Nix is not a great passing threat completing just 56% of his passes on the season. Furthermore, LSU’s defensive strength pertains to their back seven where they could feast if Auburn has to abort the running attack prematurely.

The reason I believe Auburn may have to abort the run game is because I see a lot of situations unfolding where LSU gets ahead early. LSU’s offense is playing incredibly at the moment, and quarterback Joe Burrow appears to be the real deal. Burrow amazingly has completed 80% passing on the season with 29 touchdowns and just three picks. LSU wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase provide upside match-ups in the passing game against Auburn’s corners, which could turn into the big story on the afternoon. There are several angles where LSU should strive offensively and if the defense can use the home crowd advantage to their benefit to stuff the run; this will be a tough afternoon for Auburn in Death Valley.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: LSU -12

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