Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies Total Pick 9/21/19

by | Sep 16, 2019 | cfb

Auburn vs. Texas A&M Total Pick

No. 8 Auburn Tigers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. No. 17 Texas A&M Aggies (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday September 21st, 2019. 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Kyle Field College Station, T.X.


Point Spread:AUB +4/A&M -4

Over/Under Total: 50.5

It’s safe to say there are going to be numerous high stakes match-ups in the SEC West this season. The hardest division in college football currently houses four different teams that rank inside the Top 20. Alabama, LSU, and Auburn are all ranked inside the top 10 and have high ambitions for the remainder of the season. This week a prime SEC West match-up will take place when the 8th ranked Auburn Tigers travel into College Station for a fight with no. 17 Texas A&M at Kyle Field. The Aggies have the luxury of the home field advantage and are currently listed as 4 point favorites heading into Saturday’s contest. I agree with the close betting line as I feel the Aggies present a tough match-up for the Tigers. However, instead of focusing on the betting side, I think bettors should be focused on the total in this game because the ‘under’ has some serious value!

Auburn vs. Texas A&M defense spotlight

Both Auburn and Texas A&M have similar stylistic approaches to their programs. The Tigers are still heavily involved in the group game with numerous RPO and option reads that Gus Malzahn has made famous on the Plains. Meanwhile, the Aggies also favor the ground game often despite a rather fruitful backfield of young talent. Quarterback Kellen Mond is the leader of the offense, but he is not an overwhelming passing threat. Mond is best when he is picking up yards with his feet and rolling the pocket to make passes on the run. Like the Tigers, the Aggies move the football methodically down the field and rarely rely on big plays. Both offensive styles typically grind on the playing clock, and they focus heavily on ball control.

Despite the fame that the offenses yield, each defense is the backbone of each team’s style of football. Gus Malzahn’s best teams in Auburn have been a direct result of his defenses, and Coach Jimbo Fisher has done a great job of getting the best from the Aggies defense since arriving in College Station. This is the same Aggies defense that held Clemson’s dynamic offense to just 24 points two weeks ago in a 24-10 loss. Meanwhile, Auburn held Oregon’s fast-paced offense to 21 points in their opener. Both of those games are worth mentioning because they were Auburn and A&M’s toughest challenges to date. I believe the Aggies offense has been given too much credit for blowing out inferior opponents in recent weeks which will not be the case against Auburn. The Aggies may have a shot at the win this week but don’t expect their offense to post a significant scoring number if it happens.

The reason I am so big on the defenses this week is really simple in principle. Where both offenses attempt to stretch the field with running plays and establish their momentum on the ground, the opposing defenses’ strengths are stopping the run. The Aggies currently rank 21st against the run relinquishing just 83 yards per game. Meanwhile, Auburn ranks 35th, allowing only 100 yards per game on the ground. Sure, those numbers pose some early season schedule bias but trust me when I say that the talent on the defensive side of the football provides a ton of upside in fading this 50 point total.

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Tigers offense remains one dimensional

The Tigers have prevailed with a 3-0 record and 3-0 mark ATS through the opening weeks of the season. Still, there are lingering concerns on the offensive side of the football. Quarterback Bo Nix has completed just 52% of his passing totaling four touchdowns and two picks on the season. Statistically, JaTarvious Whitlow has posted really strong stats rushing the ball, and I will admit Whitlow appears to be an excellent talent. With that said, those statistics have been a product of three terrible defenses. The other Auburn tailbacks have not been nearly as impressive, and I believe we are going to see frustrations build this week against a very underrated Texas A&M run-stop unit.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M betting trends

Auburn is 5-1 ATS in their last six games, and Texas A&M has sported a 6-1 mark ATS in their previous seven matches. In terms of the total as I have suggested above, the Tigers have hit the ‘under’ in 14 of their last 19 games overall. They have also hit the ‘under’ in seven of their previous ten against SEC teams. The Aggies have also hit the ‘under’ in five of their last seven games against SEC opponents as well which follows the trendline that I have outlined for this week’s match-up. Trust the numbers!

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Under 50.5. For those looking to bet the point spread in this game, adding some points is highly recommended due to the tight line (4). For the best teaser odds online, check out our page that spells out where you can find the best value. Every point/dollar counts!