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Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick.
No. 21 Baylor Bears (7-2 SU 5-4 ATS) vs. No. 17 Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1 SY 6-2 ATS) Week 10 NCAA Football, Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater OK, 12:30 PM EST Saturday November 6, 2010
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: BU +7.5/OSU -7.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
In this Big 12 game first place in the South Division is at stake and it should be a barnburner with the dynamic offenses that each team has. Baylor has the nation’s 10th ranked passing offense and OSU ranks 3rd and what adds more excitement is that each team has a legit rushing attack and neither team has a good defense.
Baylor has already secured their first winning season since joining the Big 12 and they still have a shot to play in a BCS game. OSU is in the same boat with a chance to get a BCS shot, but each still has to play Oklahoma, who is ranked higher than Baylor and Oklahoma State in the polls.
The betting trends are not on the side of the Bears, as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Cowboys and they have failed to cover the spread in their last 5 games in Stillwater. Not only that, but the favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 10 games and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. However, this is a different Baylor squad with one of the most exciting QB’s in the nation.
Baylor QB Robert Griffin III has passed for nearly 2,600 yards with 20 TD and he is also Baylor’s 2nd leading rusher with 401 yards with 7 TD. He passed for 219 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT last week in the Bears 30-22 win over Texas, who has the nation’s 2nd ranked pass defense. The Cowboys have one of the weakest pass defenses in the nation ranking 113th out of 120 FBS teams and Griffin will friggin’ light them up and seriously pad his stats with a big game through the air.
Baylor does not have a one-dimensional offense, as they can run the ball as well with Griffin and RB Jay Finley (813 yards 6 TD), who has simply been en fuego lately rushing for an average of 169 yards in his last 3 games. OSU has a decent run defense ranking 45th in the nation and they played well against Kansas State last week in their 24-14 win holding them to 111 yards on the ground. Finley will not light up the OSU run defense, but he will go over 100 yards again and help Griffin out on offense.
The Cowboys played good D on K-State last week, but can they keep Baylor from racking up big yards? No way man, as the Bears will put up big yards, but can the Bears play any defense? That is the big question.
OSU is led by QB Brandon Weeden, who was stellar last week passing for 298 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. That performance was that much more impressive, as he was without his main target in WR Justin Blackmon, who leads the nation with 158.86 receiving yards per game. He was suspended for one game because of a misdemeanor DUI charge and he will play in this game.
OSU also has RB Kendall Hunter, who is the leading rusher in the Big 12 averaging 143.8 yards per game. Baylor has the nation’s 78th ranked defense and they will not be able to contain Weeden or Hunter and with Blackmon back the Bears have their hands full. Just like Baylor OSU will rack up a ton of yards, as this game is going to become a shootout and that you can bank on.
Okie State cannot do much on D, but what they have done this season is force turnovers, ranking 7th in the nation in turnovers gained. That is a HUGE stat, as they will force a couple of turnovers and that is key for a game where both teams will light up the scoreboard.
Taking the Under? Yeah right. The Bears have gone Over the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games and the Cowboys have an Over record of 6-2 this season.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: It’s not too hard to see this will be a offensive shootout, but with OSU at home and their knack for forcing turnovers those 2 things will be the difference, as they will win this game and cover the 7.5-point spread.