Baylor Bears (2-0 SU 1-0 ATS) vs. No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-0 0-1 ATS) Week 3 NCAA Football, Amon Carter Stadium Fort Worth Texas 4:30 PM ET, September 18, 2010 on Versus
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Texas Christian -21.5 / Bears +21.5
Over/Under: 54.5
On Saturday afternoon in a couple of non-conference schools in the Lone Star State the 4th ranked TCU Horned Frogs host the upstart Baylor Bears. Baylor has one of the most exciting QB’s in the nation, but TCU still has a great defense and has not lost at home since the 2007 season.
Even though this game is technically a home game for the Horned Frogs the Bears are from nearby in the Dallas area, so they will have a big fan base and the home field advantage will likely not be as big for TCU.
TCU does not play in a BCS conference so if they lose this game, and probably any other game this season, they can kiss their BCS Bowl game and National Championship hopes goodbye.
Baylor is not the laughingstock of the Big 12 any longer and they can show the nation they are a legit team with a HUGE upset against the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth.
Last week both of these teams had easy wins against weak teams, as Baylor beat Buffalo 34-6 and TCU laid a serious 62-7 beat down on Tennessee Tech.
Baylor and their 21st ranked passing offense is led by electrifying QB Robert Griffin, who was 20/35 for 297 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and also ran for 2 TD in the win over Buffalo. He may be the best duel-threat QB in the nation that nobody really knows about, but that will likely change.
Baylor has a good WR corps and because the offensive line is mediocre at best Griffin will have to use his legs to get out of trouble against a TCU defense that will pressure him all game long. The TCU secondary is very aggressive and Griffin will have to be careful in this game with the ball to avoid being picked off.
If the RB duo of Jay Finley and Jarred Salubi can pick up some yards on the ground it will take a lot of pressure of Griffin, but do not look for that to happen against TCU’s solid run defense.
QB Andy Dalton leads the TCU offense and he is a solid pocket passer that rarely turns the ball over. It is his job not to make mistakes and allow the TCU defense to win the game and he is great at executing that game plan. RB Ed Wesley is the big horse in the backfield for the Horned Frogs and if he has a big game and controls the clock on the ground Baylor will be in for a long game.
Dalton and Wesley have the good fortune of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation that returns 4 starters and last season only gave up 12 sacks all season and were one of the main reasons the Horned Frogs averaged 240 rushing yards per game. They are awesome at blocking and that is not good for the Baylor defense, which is not very good at the pass rush or run defense.
Baylor’s defense gave up 325 yards last week against Buffalo and 195 the week before against a weak Sam Houston State team, so they will give up quite a few points in this game against a TCU offense that has no glaring weakness.
Look for the Horned Frogs to be rested in this game since a lot of their starters sat for most of the game in their thrashing of Tennessee Tech last week.
Baylor is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and has an Under record of 6-1 in Bears last 7 road games.
TCU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, and has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I expect lots of points to be scored in this game. Take the OVER!
