Betting on College Football Coaches
by Doug of Predictem.com
For those that love to wager on college football, it comes in handy to know certain tendencies of the head coach. Though virtually every coach could care less about the point spread on any game they are involved in coaching, word will filter down thru various channels that high-profile alumni with large banking accounts wouldn’t mind the home team covering a spread against a particular opponent. Though no head coach will worry about such a trivial matter consciously leading into a contest, given the right set of circumstances late in a contest with his team comfortably ahead, but not covering the spread, he might be inclined to run up the score.
Though there is no way to prove a coaches motive, in 1995, coach Tom Osborne of Nebraska had the No.1 team in the country heading into last regular season game against Oklahoma at Lincoln. The Cornhuskers were monstrous 34-point favorites and basically was toying with the Sooners, leading 30-0 late in the game. In the final drive, Nebraska went for a first down THREE times on fourth down and eventually scored a touchdown to cover the spread, with 37-0 shutout. If I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes, I never would have believed it.
Another example was last season when Florida hosted Miami in Gainesville. The Gators were 23-point favorites against the Hurricanes and that night despite dominating the action, led just 23-3 in the final minutes. Urban Meyer could have easily run out the clock deep in Miami territory, but instead had Tim Tebow throw two passes towards end zone before settling for field goal and a Push.
Most bettors might know about the head coach where they live, or even the coaches within the conference. Only a select few would be able to recall all the different variables from all the head coaches in the FBS.
Here is a breakdown of the top coaches in several areas based on latest runs. (Coaches only at present school)
Coaches with best home ATS records:
Troy Calhoun – Air Force – 8-2
Chris Ault -Nevada – 19-7
Kirk Ferentz – Iowa – 39-22
Garry Patterson – TCU – 36-19
Al Groh – Virginia- 31-17
Notes – Randy Edsall of Connecticut deserves to be mentioned with 25-16 ATS at Rentschler Stadium. Miami’s Randy Shannon has made the Hurricanes a Play Against team in their new home with 3-9 ATS mark. Bob Stoops might have a harder time keeping up with 35-25 ATS record in Norman without Sam Bradford at quarterback for unknown period of time. Charley Weis has making up to do to Irish bettors with 11-16 ATS mark.
Coaches with best road ATS records
Turner Gill – Buffalo – 17-6
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Dantonio – Mich. State 8-4
Charlie Weatherbie -UL- Monroe – 26-16
Jim Grobe – Wake Forest- 28-19
Notes-In years past, Mark Richt of Georgia would have been on this list, however 3-5-1 spread record of late drops him to still solid 31-22-1 ATS mark. Mark Snyder is in trouble in his fifth season at Marshall and for good reason with 3-21 and 6-16 ATS record. As good as Chris Ault is at home, he is a dismal 14-22 ATS after being spanked by Notre Dame earlier. Mike Sanford of UNLV is looking to finish .500 or better in Sin City and in order to so he needs the Rebels to be better than 0-7 ATS against .500 or less teams.
Coaches with best favorite ATS records
Troy Calhoun – Air Force – 9-2
Mark Mangino – Kansas -24-9
Mike Gundy – Okla. State – 15-6
Chris Ault – Nevada – 21-12
Steve Spurrier – South Carolina – 14-7
Notes – Considering the number of large figures Florida has to overcome; Urban Meyer’s 26-18 ATS record is fairly impressive. Though Wake Forest is great play as underdog, they are 18-28 ATS as chalk. On a similar note, Vanderbilt has is off first bowl game in 27 years, yet flounders as favorite with 6-13 ATS record. The price isn’t right on Mike Price from UTEP, sporting unflattering 10-19 against the spread record in this role.
Coaches with best underdog ATS records
Skip Holtz – ECU- 20-6
Butch Davis – UNC – 8-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 14-6
Turner Gill -Buffalo- 20-9
Mack Brown – Texas – 10-5
Notes – Skip Holtz learned from his father about being able to succeed as underdog. The same cannot be said about Ohio State’s Jim Tressel who is pedestrian 8-8 versus the oddsmaker. Mentioned Wake’s coach Grobe above, 31-17 ATS will swell any bankroll when the Demon Deacons are catching points. Two shockers from the desert. Bob Stoops’ Wildcats are 20-14 ATS receiving points, while Arizona State’s Dennis Erickson is 1-7 ATS.
Best coaches Off a SU Win, ATS records
Troy Calhoun – Air Force -13-4
Turner Gill – Buffalo- 11-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mark Mangino- Kansas – 26-12
Dick Tomey – S.J. State -12-6
Notes – Rick Brooks of Kentucky has had success in Lexington and his squads follow up success with 18-10 ATS performance. With Missouri greatly improved the last few years, it easy to forget Gary Pinkel is 24-26 ATS after a W. Kyle Whittingham’s perfect season helped raise Utah to 20-11 ATS with victory after victory. Though Pat Fitzgerald is well liked in the Windy City, he’s detested by Northwestern backers with 4-12 ATS record after the ‘Cats have conquered opponent.
Best coaches Off a SU Loss, ATS records
Pete Carroll – USC -10-3
Tom O’Brien – N.C. State – 8-3
Mike Leach – Texas Tech -21-10
Bobby Bowden – Florida State – 43-23
Randy Edsall – UConn – 28-15
Notes – Any sports bettor should have made a large chunk of money following the exploits of the Top Five in this category. The same cannot be said of Idaho’s Robb Akey who is 4-13 ATS following a loss. Dan Hawkins is losing support by the minute in Boulder and 7-13 ATS record isn’t making matters better. What about blustery Fresno State head coach Pat Hill, who loves the big moment, but is 19-33 ATS off a loss.
