Big 12 Best Bet: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State

by | Nov 23, 2022 | cfb

West Virginia Mountaineers (4-7 SU, ATS 4-6-0) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4 SU, ATS 5-5-0)
Date: Saturday, November 26th
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
TV: ESPN2
Point Spread: Mountaineers +9.5/Cowboys -9.5 (You can make WVU a +29.5 underdog by inserting them into a massive 20 point college football teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)
Money Line: Mountaineers +250/Cowboys -323
Over/Under: 66.5

RECENT FORM

The Mountaineers head into this week’s matchup with an overall record of 4-7. So far, they are just 2-6 in Big 12 play. This season, the Mountaineers have been favored in 2 games while posting an ATS mark of 4-6-0. Their average over-under betting line is 53.14 leading to an over-under record of 5-5-0.

The Mountaineers dropped their last game to Kansas State by a score of 48-31. West Virginia entered the action as 8.5-point underdogs at home. In the game, West Virginia finished with three touchdowns through the air while throwing for 216 yards. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 4.5 yards per carry for a total of 153 yards.

JT Daniels heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of 81.69. So far, he has completed 201 passes for a total of 2107 yards. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Sam James, who has caught 44 passes for a total of 726 yards. The Mountaineers have turned to running back Tony Mathis Jr. a total of 127 times for a total of 549 rushing yards.

This season, the Cowboys have a 4-4 record in conference action, with an overall mark of 7-4. This season, the Cowboys have been favored in 3 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 54.68 leading to an over-under record of 5-5-0.

Oklahoma State is coming off a 15-point loss to Oklahoma by a score of 28-13. The Cowboys entered the game as 6.5-point home underdogs, making this an ATS loss. In the win, Oklahoma State completed 53.7 of their 67 passes, 1 of which resulted in a touchdown. In the rushing game, the Cowboys did not find the endzone, finishing with a total of 103 yards on the ground.

Heading into the matchup, Spencer Sanders has an overall passer rating of 85.21 on a total of 2642 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Wide receiver Brennan Presley has come up with the most production for the team, with a total of 662 receiving yards. In the run game, Dominic Richardson has accumulated 543 yards on 149 attempts to lead the team.

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BETTING TRENDS

Over their last ten games, the Mountaineers have covered the spread at a rate of 40.0%. In these games, they posted a straight-up mark of 4-6-0. Their last ten over-under record comes in at 5-5-0. West Virginia has a negative scoring differential in these games, averaging 31.2 points per game and allowing 33.8.

Through their last five road games, West Virginia, has an ATS record of just 2-3-0. However, their overall record was 1-4-0 while averaging 21.6 points per game.

Over their last ten games, the Cowboys have covered the spread at a rate of 60.0%. In these games, they posted a straight-up mark of 6-4-0. On average, the team scored 30.4 points while allowing 28.4, leading to a positive scoring differential.

Oklahoma State has played well in their previous five home games, going 5-0-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 39.8 points per game while allowing 20.6. The team also performed well vs. the spread at 4-1-0.More Picks: Get our recommemded bet for the Tennessee at Vanerbilt Week 13 game

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into the game, the Mountaineers are ranked 47th in points per game and are matched up against an Oklahoma State defense that is giving up 29.82 points per game. However, their unit has done a good job getting off the field on 3rd downs, allowing opponents to convert at a rate of just 27.0%. This presents a problem for the Mountaineers’ offense, as they are one of worst performing team’s on 3rd down this season.

So far, the West Virginia offense is averaging just 164.36 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 36.82 rush attempts per game (64th). The Mountaineers will be facing an Oklahoma State defense ranked 120th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 185.12 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into the game, the Cowboys are ranked 36th in points per game and have an opportunity for a good game vs. a West Virginia defense that is allowing an average of 34.18 points per game and has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

So far, the Oklahoma State offense is averaging just 127.36 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 37.09 rush attempts per game (61st). The Cowboys will be facing a West Virginia defense that is ranked 86th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 133.56 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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