Big 12 Title: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Baylor Bears (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS)
When: Saturday, December 7th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium – Dallas, TX
Point Spread: BU +8.5 / OU -8.5 (Best Bonus)
Takeaways From Week Fourteen
The Bears come into this contest off a 61-6 win at Kansas and produced an easy cover as a 14-point favorite. Baylor has covered in their last four games overall, which were all Big 12 conference match-ups.
The Sooners come into this game by way of an impressive 34-16 win against their rivals Oklahoma State in the annual Bedlam Game in Stillwater, last Saturday. Closing as a 14-point favorite, the Crimson and Cream were “cash money” covering the number with ease. The ATS victory snapped a four-game Oklahoma coverless streak.
How the Public is Betting the Big 12 Championship Game
As it stands, 75% of the consensus like the Bears here taking back the points. As a result of this heavy early lean, we have seen this market fall by half of a point to where we are now getting Oklahoma at a reduced price.
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The last meeting between these two sides in November is undoubtedly instrumental in influencing this market. Baylor hosted Oklahoma and suffered its only defeat of the season against the Sooners. However, Baylor led by 25 points before Sooners Quarterback Jalen Hurts led a dramatic comeback to escape Waco with a 34-31 win. Nevertheless, Baylor came in under the number with no trouble as an 11-point underdog.
Oklahoma has won the last five meetings overall between these two sides and has produced a 3-2 ATS record against the Bears. In the previous four contests, Oklahoma was the favorite.
Heading into the Big 12 Championship Game, neither Oklahoma nor Baylor have declared emergent injury concerns to key personnel.
Why We Like Oklahoma To Cover
Usually, when one wants to back the Sooners, they can expect to pay a premium to do so, given their namesake and reputation. In the Big 12 Championship Game, we would especially expect that to be the case since Oklahoma has ruled this conference with an iron fist for the last four years. Nevertheless, Oklahoma is being offered most likely at a reduced tag given what happened the last time these two sides met. The fact remains that if the masses are all over an underdog in the manner which we see with Baylor, there is a very good chance that Oklahoma is undervalued. This prompts me to move in hard on the Sooners. Let’s not focus so much on the fact that Oklahoma won by three points when these two sides met a few weeks ago. I’d instead fix my eyes on the fact that OU outscored Baylor 31-3 from the second quarter onward. For a guy like Jalen Hurts, who has plenty of experience in high-profile games of this magnitude and winning them for that matter, he won’t be making the same mistakes he did against Baylor the first time around. Be that as it may, once Hurts got his act together, Baylor’s defense got exposed, and Oklahoma exploded its way to victory. I see Coach Lincoln Riley and Jalen Hurts looking at what went right in Waco and adapting it into their follow-up. Should the aforementioned occur, Oklahoma will cover this number with no problem.
Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma -8.5
The College Football Playoff Committee will be paying attention to this game, given the fact that the winner has an outside chance of making the final four. Should Oklahoma want to make its case, there is no better way than winning the Big 12 Championship and doing so convincingly. I trust they will. After all, Oklahoma last year avenged their only loss of the season against Texas in the Big 12 Championship and defeated the Longhorns by double digits. While OU did not fall to Baylor, it feels as if the market will not let them live down what transpired a few weeks ago. The Sooners will respond to this result with their best football season-to-date, and I can see Oklahoma dominating this contest in all phases. The Sooners will certainly win this game by a couple of scores, but I would not be shocked if an outright rout transpired in Dallas. I urge takers to swallow the points with confidence.
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