Big Ten Picks: Maryland Terrapins vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

by | Nov 6, 2019 | cfb

Maryland Terrapins (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 9th, 2019 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Ohio Stadium - Columbus, Ohio
TV: FOX

Point Spread: MD +42.5 / BUCKS -42.5 (Best Odds)
Total: 63

Poll Rankings: Ohio State -45

Takeaways From Week 10

The Terrapins come into this contest on a four-game losing streak. Most recently, the Terrapins were in action last Saturday when they hosted the Michigan Wolverines. Closing as a 21.5-point underdog, Maryland was nowhere near close to covering as the Maize and Blue cruised to a 38-7 win.

The Ohio State University enters into this conference tilt off a bye, preceded by an impressive win against the most significant challenge they have faced this season. Two weeks ago, the Buckeyes hosted a Wisconsin Badgers team that was ranked in the top-10 at one point this season and absolutely obliterated them. Closing as a 14.5-point favorite, Ohio State would thump the Badgers 38-7 to take their backers to the window yet again.

How the Public is Betting the Maryland-Ohio State Game

64% of the betting public fancy the Buckeyes here laying the heavy wood. As a result of this lean on the Buckeyes, Ohio State is spotting an additional half-point to the guests from the Bucks opening as a 42-point favorite.

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The Historicals

Maryland and Ohio State are intimately acquainted. The Bucks and the Terps last met in College Park, Maryland, in 2018, where overtime was required to determine a winner. Ohio State was the emergent victor but did so by a mere point in a 52-51 thriller. The deciding factor was Maryland electing to go for two and failing to convert.

Betting Trends

The Buckeyes will garner a lot of attention in this spot as they have covered in their last seven conference matches and are 4-0 ATS in their previous four home games. For Totals players, the Over has cashed in the past five meetings.

Best Teasers

3 Team: 6 pt Teasers 6.5 pt Teasers 7 pt Teasers
1.8 to 1 1.65 to 1 1.5 to 1
1.65 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.35 to 1
1.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.35 to 1

Injury Concerns

Terrapins Quarterback Tyrone Pigrome is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. “Piggie” remains a mystery as to whether or not he will be available for this match-up with the Bucks. Pigrome was instrumental in Maryland’s failed upset bid last year against Ohio State.

Why We Like Maryland To Cover

The Buckeyes as a whole are a public team and in most circumstances, expect to yield a lot of handle from the general consensus. This, in itself, makes the Bucks prone to be overvalued. However, Ohio State has subverted this trope in 2019 as they have been a broken slot machine, covering in seven straight games. As a result of their profitability, the Bucks are now spotting the biggest number they have all season long, which puts them in position to be the cause of many ripped tickets. After all, we saw Clemson last week spotting its biggest number of the season against visiting Wofford (-48.5) and fail to cover. Previous to this market, Ohio State’s biggest number laid this season was 38.5 to Miami, Ohio, on September 21st. The Bucks would lay waste to the Red Hawks, defeating them 76-5. The question remains heading into this fixture as to whether Maryland should be taking back 3.5 points more than Miami Ohio by contrast? I would certainly say not albeit Maryland was a ranked team at one point this season. This means there is value to be had here in taking the Terps.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Maryland +42.5

Backdoor potential is high in this contest should the Buckeyes get this one under control early, but I suspect it will not have to come to that. The Terrapins are fighting for bowl eligibility as a loss here eliminates them from the post-season. A similar set of circumstances accompanied last year’s meeting between these two sides, and we saw how that one played out. Maryland will not be rolled over in this game. I expect Coach Mike Locksley to fire this team-up, and they will come out swinging. Will there be an upset alert like last year? Probably not. However, I expect Maryland to hang with Ohio State for a half and never let the Buckeyes get too far out of reach where the Terps fail to cover. With the additional half-point leveraged, this requires Ohio State to defeat Maryland by seven scores. That is a tall order, no matter how you slice it. Take the points.